Thursday, November 17, 2011

2013 MLB Free Agent Pitcher Rankings

2013 FA Pitcher Rankings – (age) (ERA*) (xFIP*) (WAR*)
1)      Zack Greinke (28) (3.37) (3.08) (6.1)
2)      Dan Haren (32) (3.41) (3.27) (5.6)
3)      Cole Hamels (29) (3.39) (3.31) (4.1)
4)      Matt Cain (28) (2.97) (3.98) (4.1)
5)      Tim Hudson (37) (3.07) (3.66) (2.9**)
6)      Gavin Floyd (30) (4.17) (3.69) (4.1)
7)      Anibal Sanchez (29) (3.61) (3.65) (4.1)***
8)      John Danks (28) (3.94) (4.05) (3.5)
9)      Brandon McCarthy (29) (4.17) (4.39) (2.7)****
10)  Shaun Marcum (31) (3.52) (3.93) (2.8)
11)  Jake Peavy (31) (4.33) (3.56) (2.4**)
12)  Ervin Santana (30) (4.11) (4.26) (2.2)
13)  Colby Lewis (33) (4.06) (3.92) (3.5)***
14)  Brett Myers (32) (4.05) (3.75) (2.5)
15)  Francisco Liriano (29) (4.84) (3.98) (2.7)
16)  Jonathan Sanchez (29) (3.86) (4.15) (1.6**)

*Past 3 season average, unweighted
**injury contributions
***Only 2 seasons
****All 543.1 innings div by 3, 3.30ish ERA/xFIP and 4.7 WAR

1) Zack Greinke (28) (3.37) (3.08) (6.1) - Brewers
Greinke has an outlier from the last 3 years--his historic Cy Young 2009.  Then again, his xFIP was still absurd last season.  His K rate became other-worldly in the NL and he really does look like the best available pitcher in years.

2) Dan Haren (32) (3.41) (3.27) (5.6) - Angels
Haren has quietly been exceptionally good for his entire career.  The only thing more amazing than the success is the consistency--even with injuries.  Though his K rate was down this season, he lowered his walks to be among the best in the game.  He is Cliff Lee Light, which is pretty darn/really good.

3) Cole Hamels (29) (3.39) (3.31) (4.1) - Phillies
A top of the rotation guy, though you can’t deny his effectiveness last season.  The numbers are effective and pretty consistent.  He would have to be pretty lucky to ever win a Cy Young, but he is a legitimate ace in his own right.

4) Matt Cain (28) (2.97) (3.98) (4.1) - Giants
Cain has obviously been extremely effective, but his ERA is a full run better than his xFIP suggesting that he has been pretty lucky.  However, he keeps fly balls in the park like nobody else and hasn’t had an opponent BABIP above .263 in the last 3 seasons (.263, .260, .252).  If he keeps throwing dead balls, he is amazing.  If he becomes human or unlucky, he is only slightly above league average.  Still, a high potential pitcher who may be overvalued by reading his ERA.  My guess would be he ends up somewhere in between.

5) Tim Hudson (37) (3.07) (3.66) (2.9**) - Braves
When healthy, old man river (Hudson River!!!) is still a top of the rotation pitcher.  His biggest issue is being 100 years old.  Well, 37, but I rounded up.

6) Gavin Floyd (30) (4.17) (3.69) (4.1) - White Sox
Floyd’s xFIP indicates that he could be an above average starter on many teams.  His ERA hasn’t lived up to those numbers and he will turn 30, but he has strong peripherals.

7) Anibal Sanchez (29) (3.61) (3.65) (4.1)*** - Marlins
I was watching MLB Network, and Mitch Williams talked about the Marlins needing Mark Buerhle.  No argument with acquiring a good SP, until his argument is that Sanchez has under-performed and has to go.  Really?  Because his ERA is pretty good—and it isn’t a fluke.  He is a legitimate and ideal #2 on the majority of pitching staffs.  A switch to the AL might hurt the numbers to the point where you want him to be a #3, but his peripherals stand pretty well.

8) John Danks (28) (3.94) (4.05) (3.5) - White Sox
The second of the White Sox pitchers on the list is younger and has a better ERA, but his peripherals aren’t as strong.  Still, Fangraphs wrote an article calling Danks the “left-handed Edwin Jackson.” Jackson is generally considered to be the 2nd or 3rd best pitcher in the 2012 FA class and Danks is around 6th-10th.  And LHPs are generally more valuable.  A tribute to both the strength of this class and the weakness of 2012’s.

9) Brandon McCarthy (29) (4.17) (4.39) (2.7)****- A's
McCarthy didn’t pitch in the majors in 2010, and was pretty ineffective in 2009 (though not awful).  However, in 2011, he was a revelation.  A mediocre K rate was assisted by the best control of his career and a really low BB rate.  Over 4 times as many Ks to BBs.  His groundball rate was really good.  His HR/FB was lucky, and pitching in Oakland had to help, but his LOB% wasn’t good.  Next year we learn if McCarthy really “gets it” now, or if it was a fluke.  One sends his value up to #5-#6 on this list, the other might push him to #16 or below. 

10) Shaun Marcum (31) (3.52) (3.93) (2.8) - Brewers
A consistently low WHIP, good control, and effectiveness in the NL Central or AL East.  He isn’t going to overpower anyone, but he is at least a slightly above average pitcher who would be the 4th best FA SP in 2012.

11) Jake Peavy (31) (4.33) (3.56) (2.4**) - White Sox
Peavy has struggled big-time with injuries over the past few seasons.  He probably can’t bounce back entirely, and could just be “injury prone” now.  He was very good in San Diego (Cy Young good), so it is a shame injuries have taken his career downhill.  He is still worth a look if he can get healthy—in fact, he can be pretty effective in the middle of a rotation with a chance of catching his old spark.

12) Ervin Santana (30) (4.11) (4.26) (2.2) - Angels
Santana flashes great stuff, and one season sticks out and makes these numbers look pretty bad.  His chance to be an ace is pretty much gone, but if he doesn’t lose to much velocity going forward or continues to develop his game, he can be a #2 or #3 in a solid to good rotation.  His past 2 seasons have shown improvement from his poor year.

13) Colby Lewis (33) (4.06) (3.92) (3.5)*** - Rangers
I don’t know what to make of Lewis.  He will be pretty old when this contract comes to pass, but he has been steadily improving his game.  Japan made him a more effective pitcher, because when he left the states, he was abysmal.  Now, he is an above average starter.  He deserves to be up this list if that is sustainable, but I’m guessing he will get a worse deal than younger pitchers I ranked higher.

14) Brett Myers (32) (4.05) (3.75) (2.5) - Astros
Myers has good peripherals generally, but his K rate is just so-so, and was down last season.  If he can bump that above 7 on a consistent basis, he is a solid middle of the rotation arm.

15) Francisco Liriano (29) (4.84) (3.98) (2.7) - Twins
Liriano has had a bunch of sub-2 WAR seasons.  He has dealt with injuries, and set-backs, along with control and velocity issues.  However, he didn’t in 2010 with a 2.95 xFIP, a 9.44 K/9, and a 6.0 WAR.  When he is healthy (rare), he can be an ace.  Then again, that may have been a one hit wonder year.  An ace or a #5.  Risky.

16) Jonathan Sanchez (29) (3.86) (4.15) (1.6**) - Royals
Sanchez is going to strike you out.  And if he ever figures out how to do that with walking the next guy, he will be amazing.  Unfortunately, he gets his Ks by pitching high in the zone and risks walks as a strategic move.  It is the sort of thing that will frustrate a fan into oblivion.  On some nights, he will have it, and will crush all.  On others, he will walk everybody in the stadium.  But most of the time he will go 5-6 innings and give up a couple.  Pretty much a league average, middle of the rotation guy.  Which isn’t too bad.  This year’s version of Sanch-journeyman (better than Sanchize) is probably Hiroki Kuroda, the 5th best MLB FA SP.  And Sanchez is 16th.

Strong class.  Of course, several of these guys will be re-signed by their current team.  The Brewers want Greinke back, but I’m not sure how they can afford him (or Reyes) and not Prince.  Haren should test the market because a payday should be there.  Hamels seems content in Philly even though the losing will probably start in 2014.  The Giants will want Cain pretty badly, but he should test the market even if he returns.

The Braves have a good rotation with strong arms arriving, not to mention they might get a Type A pick for Hudson.  At least two of Floyd, Danks, and Peavy should hit the market, right?  Maybe only one—but not three, either?  Hmm.  The Marlins seem disenfranchised with Sanchez for some reason that I cannot understand.  The A’s will want to rebuild, and want a McCarthy draft pick, and they don’t retain starters at significant cost.  Milwaukee definitely won’t get Greinke AND Marcum.

Santana seems like a good bet to hit FA.  If the Angels are smart, they will retain Haren first.  I would be surprised if any of the rest get signed up during the season.  The Rangers have good young pitching and won’t clog things.  Houston and Minnesota need to rebuild, and Kansas City needs to look at someone better than Sanchez for the top of the rotation to compete, while Sanchez can fill in a more competitive rotation's middle.