Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Thoughts on Wil Myers, Top Prospects, and What the Royals Should Try To Do

Pretty much everybody rates Wil Myers as a top 3 prospect.  Some have him at #2, some at #3, but I haven’t seen any at #4, yet.  Top 3 prospects are usually pretty special players.  Here is a list, in order of appearance on the list, of the 21 position players who have been in Baseball America’s top 3 prospects since 2001 (fWAR/season over career [<300 AB seasons omitted], highest fWAR single season):

1.       Josh Hamilton (4.17, 8.4)
2.       Corey Patterson (1.37, 5.2)
3.       Hank Blalock (1.82, 5.1)
4.       Mark Teixeira (4.26, 7.4)
5.       Rocco Baldelli (2.57, 3.5)
6.       Jose Reyes (4.87, 6.4)
7.       Joe Mauer (4.86, 7.9)
8.       B.J. Upton (3.9, 5.0)
9.       Delmon Young (-0.02, 1.7)
10.   Justin Upton (3.5, 6.4)
11.   Brandon Wood (N/A)
12.   Alex Gordon (4.38, 6.9)
13.   Jay Bruce (2.74, 5.4)
14.   Evan Longoria (5.86, 7.7)
15.   Matt Wieters (3.23, 5.0)
16.   Colby Rasmus (2.3, 4.3)
17.   Jason Heyward (4.57, 6.6)
18.   Giancarlo Stanton (4.37, 5.8)
19.   Bryce Harper (4.9)
20.   Mike Trout (10.0)
21.   Jesus Montero (-0.2)
22.   Jurickson Profar (TBD)
23.   Wil Myers (TBD)

 

-15 of 21 averaged being above average players (2.5 fWAR) – 71%
-16 of 21 had at least one season of at least 4.9 fWAR – 76%
-3 players have yielded a negative product for their team, one was a rookie – 14%
-11 of 21 have averaged being at least 3.9 fWAR/season, which places them as securely above average to good.
-If all fWAR totals are given equal weight (which is not necessarily proper, but is fun), the average of the averages is 3.5—an above average player.
-If all fWAR totals are given equal weight (which is not necessarily proper, but is fun), the average of the best year is 5.4, an all-star level season.

 

Now, that was not a proper statistical breakdown.  I didn’t average all PAs and games to get the best result.  The sample size is small and arbitrary.  But this was easier, and it still gives a reasonable impression regarding player, even if it throws out potentially useful data, and might overrate less useful date.  Easier.  Meh.

 

It might be smart to compare scouting reports to make sure Wil Myers doesn’t end up like one of the flops.  I think it is more useful to look at the flops and see why Myers will or won’t be like them.

 

1) OF Corey Patterson – The classic 5-tool player.  He is not Wil Myers.  Corey was a speedster, and was rated high to be a speedster on the base path, and great defender.  He showed power in A and AA (not Myers power, but a couple 20+ HR seasons at age 19 and 20.  But the power fell off in AAA at 21, and even though he was projected to be a moderate power guy, he only had 1 20+ HR season in his MLB career.  His BB/K rate was terrible, and that is obvious from scouting reports and numbers.  He was like a B.J. Upton, but his power didn’t work out as well, and he absolutely never walked.  This led to only above average offensive year, though his defense remained so good, he had a 5.2 fWAR once with a sub-par RC+.  If he could walk, he would have been totally worth it, instead of a 4th OF journeyman.  His approach is very different from Myers.  As long as Myers keeps some power and keeps walking, no worries.

2) 3B Hank Blalock – Oh boy, what happened to Hank Blalock?  For some reason, in 2005, his power started to disappear.  The HRs weren’t much worse, but the ISO dipped.  Then it did it again in 2006.  Out of nowhere, in 2007, the power surged back, but then he had surgery for a rare disorder, which resulted in a rib removal, ending his season.  He never really bounced back after that.  It appears injuries decimated his power, which led to his crappiness (after initial awesomeness), but loss of power is pretty critical to this type of rare prospect.

3) OF Rocco Baldelli – He had a rare blood disorder where he didn’t have enough midichlorians to use the force, and it prematurely ended a promising career.  Note: I do not understand science, medicine, or the human body.

4) OF Delmon Young – Young is the second largest bust on this list, though he keeps getting MLB jobs.  That is how high his star was.  He was a strong athlete with good defensive range, an outstanding arm, and good speed.  He consistently beat up on minor league pitching, and showed power potential to all fields.  However, he never showed true elite power.  In his last AAA season, his ISO was .158.  There were some warning signs.  Then he filled his body, and became pretty slow.  His plus speed and defense became a legitimate minus, and his power is not elite.  By the by, he ALSO HATES WALKING!  He is a solid contact hitter, but his average is a product of his BABIP, year to year.  No elite power AND he doesn’t walk.  Myers COULD fill out his frame and become a defensive liability, but the key is if he maintains plate discipline and power.

5) IF Brandon Wood – Here’s the biggest bust.  BA said he profiled as a middle of the order run producer with 25-30 HRs per year at SS.  And hey, he’s a Royal now.  As a 21 year old, he showed .276 ISO power in AA.  At 22, in AAA, it was .224.  The power sounds awfully legit.  The K/BB rate isn’t far from Myers’ rate.  At 23, his AAA ISO over 103 games was .299.  His RC+ was 140.  Back to the majors, his walks dropped terribly, his Ks weren’t as bad as his first stint, but still awful.  In AAA next season, he raked, again.  Over his next 2 stints with the Angels, his ISO was under .100 each time.  Johnny Giavotella’s doppelganger.  If you’re hoping for at least a good AAA player now—that might be gone.  He was awful for the Rockies AAA affiliate last year.  Wood was the ultimate AAA player, but he might be past his prime for that.  Keep an eye out for simply not being able to function in the majors. 

6) OF Colby Rasmus – The rate of OFs here is a little upsetting, no?  It is tough to call him a bust, but Rasmus’ WAR average is on the low side, and he is the most upsetting comparison.  In 2007, at age 20, Rasmus shows ISO power of .275.  In 2008 in AAA, at 21, the power dropped off to an ISO of .145.  His K/BB was fantastic, but he had a below average offensive season with the power outage.  In 2010, the power returned at the MLB level, and he posted a great offensive year even though the defense regressed.  In recent years, the power is mostly gone, the patience has suffered, and it is unclear what type of runner/fielder you will get.  Unfortunately, in a generally bad case scenario, this could be Wil Myers.  If the walks go down, and the power gets dried up at all, this is a realistic possibility.  I am hoping Myers is more Stanton and less Rasmus, but anywhere in between is possible/likely right now.

 

A top 3 player is by no means a guaranteed success, but the likelihood of an at least average player is substantial, and the likelihood of creating an at least one-time all-star caliber season happens in about 3 of 4 players.  This is where the stars originate—the top 3.

 

As a 21 year old, Wil Myers flexed an ISO (isolated power) of .250 in AAA.  No other 21 year old did this, this year.  The only 22 year old to best this ISO total is Anthony Rizzo at a .354 ISO (outstanding).  In the majors at 22, over 87 games, Rizzo showed a .178 ISO on the way to an above average offensive season (116 RC+).  The next closest 22 year old is another Cub, Josh Vitters.  He had an ISO of .210 and a RC+ of 121, but he struggled mightily in his first MLB stint.  Myers, a year younger, had the .250 ISO and a RC+ of 138.

 

But that was just last year.  The only players since 2006 to show an ISO of at least .250 in AAA by age 21 (min: 150 PA) are Wil Myers, and:
Anthony Rizzo: .320
Brett Lawrie: .308
Mike Moustakas: .270
Travis Snider: .326
Jay Bruce: .266
Adam Jones: .271
Jay Bruce (20): .262
Billy Butler: .251
 


Oh boy, which of these names doesn’t belong?  Travis Snider demonstrated the best power at 21 among all those guys, so maybe ISO isn’t such a good source.  Well, these 200 PAs seem a little out of context.  His AA total in the previous year was .199 over 423 PAs.  In AAA that year, it dipped to .172.  Then it was at .164 in the majors, and got injured.  He raked in AAA, got the call up, posted a .178 ISO, and a 96 RC+, just below average offense.  In 2010, despite a terrible K/BB rate, he posted about an average offensive year over 319 PAs.  In 2011, the power fell off to .123, the Ks went up, the BBs went down, and he looked bad at the plate.  With 2 teams in 2012, his walks shot up, his power still sucked, and he had a 93 RC+.  His power showing appears to be an anomaly, but it is the key regarding Myers.  At 21, Snider was showing similar K/BB numbers in the minors, yet struggled with his approach in the majors.  Bill James is still a believer—his 2013 projection is a .352 WOBA, high enough for an above average offensive year combined with slightly above average defense and potentially similar base running.  Travis Snider is exactly who we don’t want Myers to be, but his power pedigree has a much better history.  And in reality, Snider still might not be that bad, even with the early suckitude.  The rest of those guys have had at least moderate MLB success.

 

At age 21 in AA, Wil Myers showed an ISO to the tune of .388.  Since 2006, Wil Myers and the following have amassed at least a .375+ ISO at AA by 21 (min 150 PA):
Giancarlo Stanton: .417 (at 20)
Next closest: Mike Moustakas (.340 at 21)

 

First of all, NO ONE wrecked AA like Giancarlo Stanton.  Second, Wil Myers was the closest, Moose was 3rd, and there isn’t a 4th place honorable mention—since 2006.  Even though he was a year older, that type of power is near untouchable.  If Wil Myers starts 2013 with similar power, there are no worries.  The power is real.  If the power seems temporary, there may be a chance of Snidering Myers.  It seems the key is in the scouting reports that see the power and differentiate it from lesser player—the bat speed, the athleticism, and the results together give a higher probability that the talent will be sustained at the MLB level.  For kicks, here are some interesting names that came up in ISO research at young ages (in recent years):

At 22 in AA:
Brandon Allen: .340
Ryan Braun: .286
Brandon Belt: .286
Chris Davis: .285
Domonic Brown: .284
Matt Adams: .266
Alex Gordon: .263
Matt Wieters: .260
Pedro Alvarez: .257
Brandon Snyder: .254
Chris Carter: .239
Derek Norris: .237

At 20 in AA:
Eric Hosmer: .303
Colby Rasmus: .275
Anthony Rizzo: .217

At 19 in AA:
Jason Heyward: .259
Justin Upton: .247
Giancarlo Stanton: .224

 

The presence of some of these names should be bittersweet for Royals fans—it is a reminder of the sky high potential of Moustakas and Hosmer.  It also reminds us that the major leagues can confuse even the brightest talents in early years.  Bright prospects can fail out of the gate.  Sub-par performances can even be expected initially.  However, most top talents still produce enough in the short-term to not only justify long-term results, but can justify itself.

 

If we are going to be realistic about Myers, he fills a big need for the Royals in RF, but he might carry downside.  Most scouts view his bat as great—terrific patience, really good power, and solid contact with a great ability to barrel up balls for more line drives.  That said, none of the tools, even the power, is viewed as truly elite.  I have heard no one say that he has 80 power like Stanton, nor does he show Stanton’s patience.  I hear that he has an outstanding hit tool, and he is patient.  His defense could be average because he is athletic, but a bit of a bumbler still.  It is within the realm of possibility that he is average, or close to it, like Rasmus.  However, he will never be a plus defender, building up WAR with consistent defense and base running.  His value will all come from hitting.  Even if power is a 65-70 (which it almost certainly won’t start as), he will have to maintain his patience, or face being mediocre.

 

I have heard scouting report making the comparison of Giancarlo Stanton.  It makes sense.  Intense power despite a wiry frame.  However, even with good patience and power from Myers, he is not as good with either tool.  Another scouting comp often made is Hunter Pence.  Goofy swings, bodies, all-out attitudes, and skills are similar.  However, Myers may have to work to have that type of defense, and he will have to evolve as a base runner, or he will diminish his own value.  The key differences between Pence and Myers are power and strikeout rates.  They are both patient hitters.  The K rates favor Pence and the power favors Myers.  In AA at age 23, Pence showed an ISO of .250, and at 24 in AAA, it was .232.  Myers has a clear upperhand.  However, at 23 in AAA, the K% was 18.4.  That is superior to Myers in AA by a decent amount.  Pence has played well in the majors keeping a BB% at 7.3% for his career with Ks at 18.5%.  There were some early career struggles with this.  Myers has never had this success against Ks.  If Myers can counteract the higher Ks (keep it under 25%) with more power than Pence has shown (.187 ISO career for Pence, so .210 or so for Myers) above average offensive production will exist.  If he can do that with average defense, he is a valuable player.  Over 6 years, Pence has averaged a 3.52 fWAR with no outstanding single seasons (highest is 4.7).  With Myers potential power and Ks, the ceiling and floor of Hunter Pence do not apply.  I could see a fall-off year of two from Myers, but still see mostly above average play, and maybe a year or two of outstanding play, just over the first contract.

 

We don’t know what Wil Myers is, yet.  The serious questions are: can he generally sustain plus power, and can he sustain his plus patience?  The failures ahead of him either were not patient at the plate, not as powerful, dealt with injuries, or just couldn’t cut it in the majors.  My guess for Myers is a good player, with a chance of really good.  However, the option of bad is certainly still on the table.  If he does end up providing 25 WAR over 7 seasons, which may be modest, and the Royals decide to trade him, they had better get a pretty serious return.  I am ignoring the potential to be even better than that even though it is very real.

 

A superior return might come from lower level prospects, even like Jake Odorizzi, who might yield an interesting pitcher.  There are several teams who might be looking to sell due to either being uncompetitive or deep.  Three names that pop into my head as buy-low candidates are Boston’s Jon Lester, Atlanta’s Tommy Hanson, and Oakland’s Brett Anderson.  There are rumors that Myers is up for grabs for Jon Lester.  I assume this is a Red Sox generated rumor since it is wildly beyond the pale.  Lester has seen his fastball and Ks fade, which sort of kills his desirability, much less giving up a legitimate super prospect.  There are rumors of Shields for Myers, as well.  While I find that trade more desirable, I still find it awful.  Hanson is a Brave and Braves’ fans  hate him.  Dayton is, no doubt, intrigued.  Unfortunately, his fastball is badly down, too.  If this is a matter of injury, it is one thing, but that is pretty unlikely.  While his fastball has slowed, his changeup remains the same speed.  He still might be an interesting option for the right (low) price, but he might be on the verge on Jonathan Sanchezism. 

 

The one I really like is Brett Anderson.  Anderson is finally healthy for the first time in awhile (2009?), and in 6 regular season contests (not including one good postseason start—4 runners, 0 runs, and 6 Ks over 6.0 Inn), he yielded a 3.06 xFIP, his ERA and FIP were better.  Anderson, if truly healthy, and I believe he is—based on TJ rates and no inside knowledge—could be a borderline #1 starter.  He is inked for 3 more years, 2 of which are team option years.  He is Mr. Groundball, so the HR suppressing Coliseum doesn’t even make use of his best weapon.  His K% is 6.89 for his career, which is mostly not good, but decent.  His BB% is 2.19, which is darn good.  His K/BB is plenty good, he was once a top 10 prospect, when his HR/FB rate is good, he’s great.  When it is bad, he’s okay.  A high BABIP and injury history are downers, but his career ERA, FIP, and xFIP are 3.57, 3.53, and 3.55.  If he’s healthy, I have a good guess how he will do over the next 3 years, you guys.  There is reason to believe some bad stats in 2011 were the result of a pre-TJ injury, so he might be even better.  Oakland currently has Tommy Milone, Jarrod Parker, A.J. Griffin, Dan Straily, and Travis Blackley.  This does not include injured Dallas Braden (who is a FA, but may return), re-signed Bartolo Colon, or prospects.  Prospects include A.J. Cole (potential ace, still a bit away), Brad Peacock (inexplicably bad 2012 looking for a bounceback), and 1st rounder Sonny Gray (who might fill in as soon as next season). There are rumors the A’s want to bring back McCarthy.  Without prospects, Braden, McCarthy, or Anderson, that is 6 pitchers filling 5 spot.  If the A’s lose Brett, they can still send Blackley or Straily to AAA to start the year.  Or they can cut Colon.  If they sign McCarthy, TWO guys can start in AAA, or 1+cut Colon (I am assuming the potential for non-roids Colon to be regular old and bad).  That is some serious flexibility, and the A’s are all about having more prospects and generally winning deals.  Heck, even with all the available pitching, the A’s would probably demand at least one more good pitcher.  When the A’s unloaded Gio and Cahill, it was assumed they were competing for 2014/15 as a start date, yet the farm isn’t really loaded.  If they are gearing up for the current AND the future, they could use some help on the infield, especially one of the left side positions.  Addison Russell is probably the future at SS or 3B, but the low budget team is still looking for the other piece.  The OF of today is darn good—Crisp (FA in 1014), Smith (FA in 2015), Cespedes (FA in 2016), Reddick (FA in 17).  Some contracts will work themselves out, and other might have to get moved if the arbitration costs are too great.  The future seems decent (Grant Green either this year or next to replace Crisp, Michael Choice in a corner eventually, probably taking out Smith, Michael Taylor could be an option next season if he puts the tools together), but by 2016, another OF might be useful, especially since the expectations haven’t been met for those prospects.  So, if Oakland is a “get good players” team or a “fill in holes” team, getting prospects could be appealing.  Let me suggest a trade of:

RHP Jake Odorizzi
RHP Kyle Smith
OF Jorge Bonifacio
SS Orlando Calixte

for

RHP Brett Anderson


The Royals surrender a guy around prospect #30, then several guys who are fringe top 100, but most would put all 3 at least slightly out of the top 100.  If Bonifacio or Calixte doesn’t do it for Oakland, Cheslor Cuthbert could be injected (a former top 100 on a down year) and would let the A’s double down on finding another left side compliment.  Smith produced a 1.98 FIP in R+/A ball, and he averaged over 5 innings a start at age 19.  Wowza.  He is short, but Fangraphs has him as the #10 Royals prospect, and believes he could be a #3 or #4 starter around 2015.  Calixte is a 20 year old SS, and between A/A+, he showed terrific defense and a .337 WOBA despite getting his power sapped in Wilmington (which happens to pretty much everybody ever.  Bonifacio is the #7 prospect for KC (Fangraphs), and has the potential to be an above average right fielder in every way except power, where it flashes plus talent.  He could be a starting RF by 2014, and might realize his power slightly after that.  If the preference is Cuthbert, he was a top 100 rated player by most groups prior to last season, but just lost all power this season.  He is still very young at 3B in, guess where, Wilmington.  If Oakland scouts like any of these guys, take 4 of 5, and call it a day.  Oakland immediately gets a new top prospect in Odorizzi, and they reload the system with a multitude of options, or pieces to combine and trade.  They save about $5M this year that could go into their infield or McCarthy.  The option years cost $8M and $12M.  Adding to the pitching quality (in a young stable), they can flip guys for IF, too.  The deal is fair (not a far stretch from the Greinke trade: Odorizzi, budding SS, OF potential, potential other arm.  These guys aren’t as close as Cain and Escobar, but the potential is higher, and Odorizzi can contribute to a rotation now.

 

The Royals get a potential top-ish of the rotation starter for the next 3 seasons at a generally affordable rate, though they take on injury risks.  While losing Odorizzi sucks (potential to be a #2 - #4 starter), the Royals get the benefit of a #2 now (probably), and they don’t lose any core pieces of the future or mega-talents (Myers, Zimmer, Starling, Mondesi, Ventura).  A rotation of Anderson, Guthrie, Duffy, Paulino, and either Mendoza, Lamb, Zimmer, or Ventura looks pretty decent, and doesn’t really miss Odorizzi.  Both Oakland and Kansas City would benefit.  It is a little weird for a division winner to sell a good starter for future benefits, but poor teams have to do this. 



This trade offer is reasonable for James Shields as well, mostly because the plight of pitching depth and no money is an issue for the Rays as well.  Shields only has two years of control left, and while he is a safer bet to be healthy, eat innings, and probably be better (3.25 xFIP over last 2 seasons), he might cost more, and Bill James has him pitching to a 3.75 FIP, so…maybe not ideal.  I’m still not selling Myers for him at all, even if Myers is up and down, and only slightly above average.  Two years of a 9 fWAR pitching vs. seven years of 25 fWAR hitting is a significant loss—especially when the current Royals RF is terrible.  Losing 4 guys who can be 2.0 – 2.5 guys for 7 years each is valuable (let’s say 2 prospects reach that level—it is still reasonable stuff), but still acceptable for the Royals.  Using the Greinke trade again, the cost of 2 years of a bona fide ace is (1) legitimate pitching prospect, (2) legitimate IF prospect, (3) OF with potential, and (4) arm with potential, and a couple pieces must be ready to contribute.  I’m sure the Royals could include Francoeur if anybody wants him (he really should have value as a platoon guy [122 career OPS+ vs. LHP, last season as much an anomaly as the good one—he should be around replacement level as an everyday guy], and if the Royals pick up enough money that he is being paid like a platoon player (probably going to have to send at least $5M), I think they could flip him for a decent D – prospect.  What?  That isn’t a thing?  Well, nothing will be fine, too.  And that chunk is probably the pipiest part of the dream, so never mind, I guess.  Still, the Royals are giving a MLB ready RHP to fill the void, which allows the Rays to flip other starters for other current needs, AND sets up the future.  The Rays will see a dip in SP production (and because they have a really pitcher-friendly park, I expect it not to be a terrible dip), but then can flip the other pitching to fill out the roster.  If putting Francouer and money on top (so Fuld can platoon with Frenchy) or adding Giavotella (to try and put Zobrist at SS) change any hearts and minds, it is obviously doable.  The Rays seem interested in a catcher, too, and could probably send one pitcher between Archer, Cobb, or Odorizzi to Toronto for the likes of Arencibia; probably not Niemann, but you never know.  In fact, maybe 3-way trade that guy.



The bottom line is that the Royals want another starter, but no one legitimately on the market is worth a top 3 prospect.  Is Matt Moore?  Oh, I’d say so.  Myers AND Odorizzi might not be enough top end talent for that move, but I doubt moving Moore is on Tampa Bay’s wish list.  The Royals should be, and are focusing on bringing in a #2—nearly #1 talent.  The options they should look at are Shields, Anderson, and MAYBE Hanson since his prospect price tag should be so low.  However, none of these guys is worth a top 3 prospect.  The length of contract, immediate financial cost, and most of all—talent ceiling is not a sufficient return.  The Royals aren’t trying to land Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Chris Sale, or Matt Cain, here.  These guys are the next step down, and the next step down does not deserve a mega-return.  According to Fangraphs, last year, Shields was the 18th best pitcher in baseball.  Anibal Sanchez was the 22nd and he is younger.  Most people believe that for $15M a year, he can be yours for 5 years, at the cost of no prospects.  Shields, will cost $9M and $12M.  $9M over the next 2 years is non insubstantial, but it isn’t a back breaker.  The next 3 seasons would be costly, but Shields will cost about that match on the market—and you’re asking the Royals to give up the 2nd best prospect in baseball just to shorten a contract and minimize future expenses?  Oh crap, that might work.