1.
Josh Hamilton (4.17, 8.4)
2.
Corey Patterson (1.37, 5.2)
3.
Hank Blalock (1.82, 5.1)
4.
Mark Teixeira (4.26, 7.4)
5.
Rocco Baldelli (2.57, 3.5)
6.
Jose Reyes (4.87, 6.4)
7.
Joe Mauer (4.86, 7.9)
8.
B.J. Upton (3.9, 5.0)
9.
Delmon Young (-0.02, 1.7)
10.
Justin Upton (3.5, 6.4)
11.
Brandon Wood (N/A)
12.
Alex Gordon (4.38, 6.9)
13.
Jay Bruce (2.74, 5.4)
14.
Evan Longoria (5.86, 7.7)
15.
Matt Wieters (3.23, 5.0)
16.
Colby Rasmus (2.3, 4.3)
17.
Jason Heyward (4.57, 6.6)
18.
Giancarlo Stanton (4.37, 5.8)
19.
Bryce Harper (4.9)
20.
Mike Trout (10.0)
21.
Jesus Montero (-0.2)
22.
Jurickson Profar (TBD)
23.
Wil Myers (TBD)
-15 of 21
averaged being above average players (2.5 fWAR) – 71%
-16 of 21
had at least one season of at least 4.9 fWAR – 76%
-3 players
have yielded a negative product for their team, one was a rookie – 14%
-11 of 21
have averaged being at least 3.9 fWAR/season, which places them as securely
above average to good.
-If all fWAR
totals are given equal weight (which is not necessarily proper, but is fun),
the average of the averages is 3.5—an above average player.
-If all fWAR
totals are given equal weight (which is not necessarily proper, but is fun),
the average of the best year is 5.4, an all-star level season.
Now, that
was not a proper statistical breakdown.
I didn’t average all PAs and games to get the best result. The sample size is small and arbitrary. But this was easier, and it still gives a
reasonable impression regarding player, even if it throws out potentially
useful data, and might overrate less useful date. Easier.
Meh.
It might be
smart to compare scouting reports to make sure Wil Myers doesn’t end up like
one of the flops. I think it is more
useful to look at the flops and see why Myers will or won’t be like them.
1) OF Corey
Patterson – The classic 5-tool player. He
is not Wil Myers. Corey was a speedster,
and was rated high to be a speedster on the base path, and great defender. He showed power in A and AA (not Myers power,
but a couple 20+ HR seasons at age 19 and 20.
But the power fell off in AAA at 21, and even though he was projected to
be a moderate power guy, he only had 1 20+ HR season in his MLB career. His BB/K rate was terrible, and that is
obvious from scouting reports and numbers. He was like a B.J. Upton, but his power didn’t
work out as well, and he absolutely never walked. This led to only above average offensive
year, though his defense remained so good, he had a 5.2 fWAR once with a
sub-par RC+. If he could walk, he would
have been totally worth it, instead of a 4th OF journeyman. His approach is very different from
Myers. As long as Myers keeps some power
and keeps walking, no worries.
2) 3B Hank
Blalock – Oh boy, what happened to Hank Blalock? For some reason, in 2005, his power started
to disappear. The HRs weren’t much
worse, but the ISO dipped. Then it did
it again in 2006. Out of nowhere, in
2007, the power surged back, but then he had surgery for a rare disorder, which
resulted in a rib removal, ending his season.
He never really bounced back after that.
It appears injuries decimated his power, which led to his crappiness
(after initial awesomeness), but loss of power is pretty critical to this type
of rare prospect.
3) OF Rocco
Baldelli – He had a rare blood disorder where he didn’t have enough midichlorians
to use the force, and it prematurely ended a promising career. Note: I do not understand science, medicine,
or the human body.
4) OF Delmon
Young – Young is the second largest bust on this list, though he keeps getting
MLB jobs. That is how high his star
was. He was a strong athlete with good
defensive range, an outstanding arm, and good speed. He consistently beat up on minor league
pitching, and showed power potential to all fields. However, he never showed true elite
power. In his last AAA season, his ISO
was .158. There were some warning
signs. Then he filled his body, and
became pretty slow. His plus speed and
defense became a legitimate minus, and his power is not elite. By the by, he ALSO HATES WALKING! He is a solid contact hitter, but his average
is a product of his BABIP, year to year.
No elite power AND he doesn’t walk.
Myers COULD fill out his frame and become a defensive liability, but the
key is if he maintains plate discipline and power.
5) IF
Brandon Wood – Here’s the biggest bust.
BA said he profiled as a middle of the order run producer with 25-30 HRs
per year at SS. And hey, he’s a Royal
now. As a 21 year old, he showed .276
ISO power in AA. At 22, in AAA, it was
.224. The power sounds awfully legit. The K/BB rate isn’t far from Myers’ rate. At 23, his AAA ISO over 103 games was
.299. His RC+ was 140. Back to the majors, his walks dropped
terribly, his Ks weren’t as bad as his first stint, but still awful. In AAA next season, he raked, again. Over his next 2 stints with the Angels, his
ISO was under .100 each time. Johnny
Giavotella’s doppelganger. If you’re
hoping for at least a good AAA player now—that might be gone. He was awful for the Rockies AAA affiliate
last year. Wood was the ultimate AAA
player, but he might be past his prime for that. Keep an eye out for simply not being able to
function in the majors.
6) OF Colby
Rasmus – The rate of OFs here is a little upsetting, no? It is tough to call him a bust, but Rasmus’
WAR average is on the low side, and he is the most upsetting comparison. In 2007, at age 20, Rasmus shows ISO power of
.275. In 2008 in AAA, at 21, the power
dropped off to an ISO of .145. His K/BB
was fantastic, but he had a below average offensive season with the power
outage. In 2010, the power returned at
the MLB level, and he posted a great offensive year even though the defense regressed. In recent years, the power is mostly gone,
the patience has suffered, and it is unclear what type of runner/fielder you
will get. Unfortunately, in a generally
bad case scenario, this could be Wil Myers.
If the walks go down, and the power gets dried up at all, this is a
realistic possibility. I am hoping Myers
is more Stanton and less Rasmus, but anywhere in between is possible/likely
right now.
A top 3
player is by no means a guaranteed success, but the likelihood of an at least
average player is substantial, and the likelihood of creating an at least one-time
all-star caliber season happens in about 3 of 4 players. This is where the stars originate—the top 3.
As a 21 year
old, Wil Myers flexed an ISO (isolated power) of .250 in AAA. No other 21 year old did this, this year. The only 22 year old to best this ISO total
is Anthony Rizzo at a .354 ISO (outstanding).
In the majors at 22, over 87 games, Rizzo showed a .178 ISO on the way
to an above average offensive season (116 RC+).
The next closest 22 year old is another Cub, Josh Vitters. He had an ISO of .210 and a RC+ of 121, but he
struggled mightily in his first MLB stint.
Myers, a year younger, had the .250 ISO and a RC+ of 138.
But that was
just last year. The only players since
2006 to show an ISO of at least .250 in AAA by age 21 (min: 150 PA) are Wil
Myers, and:
Anthony
Rizzo: .320
Brett
Lawrie: .308
Mike
Moustakas: .270
Travis Snider:
.326
Jay Bruce:
.266
Adam Jones:
.271
Jay Bruce
(20): .262
Billy
Butler: .251
Oh boy,
which of these names doesn’t belong?
Travis Snider demonstrated the best power at 21 among all those guys, so
maybe ISO isn’t such a good source.
Well, these 200 PAs seem a little out of context. His AA total in the previous year was .199
over 423 PAs. In AAA that year, it
dipped to .172. Then it was at .164 in
the majors, and got injured. He raked in
AAA, got the call up, posted a .178 ISO, and a 96 RC+, just below average offense. In 2010, despite a terrible K/BB rate, he
posted about an average offensive year over 319 PAs. In 2011, the power fell off to .123, the Ks
went up, the BBs went down, and he looked bad at the plate. With 2 teams in 2012, his walks shot up, his
power still sucked, and he had a 93 RC+. His power showing appears to be an anomaly,
but it is the key regarding Myers. At
21, Snider was showing similar K/BB numbers in the minors, yet struggled with his
approach in the majors. Bill James is
still a believer—his 2013 projection is a .352 WOBA, high enough for an above
average offensive year combined with slightly above average defense and
potentially similar base running. Travis
Snider is exactly who we don’t want Myers to be, but his power pedigree has a
much better history. And in reality,
Snider still might not be that bad, even with the early suckitude. The rest of those guys have had at least
moderate MLB success.
At age 21 in
AA, Wil Myers showed an ISO to the tune of .388. Since 2006, Wil Myers and the following have
amassed at least a .375+ ISO at AA by 21 (min 150 PA):
Giancarlo
Stanton: .417 (at 20)
Next closest:
Mike Moustakas (.340 at 21)
First of
all, NO ONE wrecked AA like Giancarlo Stanton.
Second, Wil Myers was the closest, Moose was 3rd, and there
isn’t a 4th place honorable mention—since 2006. Even though he was a year older, that type of
power is near untouchable. If Wil Myers
starts 2013 with similar power, there are no worries. The power is real. If the power seems temporary, there may be a
chance of Snidering Myers. It seems the
key is in the scouting reports that see the power and differentiate it from
lesser player—the bat speed, the athleticism, and the results together give a
higher probability that the talent will be sustained at the MLB level. For kicks, here are some interesting names
that came up in ISO research at young ages (in recent years):
At 22 in AA:
Brandon
Allen: .340
Ryan Braun:
.286
Brandon
Belt: .286
Chris Davis:
.285
Domonic
Brown: .284
Matt Adams:
.266
Alex Gordon:
.263
Matt
Wieters: .260
Pedro
Alvarez: .257
Brandon
Snyder: .254
Chris
Carter: .239
Derek
Norris: .237
At 20 in AA:
Eric Hosmer:
.303
Colby
Rasmus: .275
Anthony
Rizzo: .217
At 19 in AA:
Jason
Heyward: .259
Justin
Upton: .247
Giancarlo
Stanton: .224
The presence
of some of these names should be bittersweet for Royals fans—it is a reminder of
the sky high potential of Moustakas and Hosmer.
It also reminds us that the major leagues can confuse even the brightest
talents in early years. Bright prospects
can fail out of the gate. Sub-par
performances can even be expected initially.
However, most top talents still produce enough in the short-term to not
only justify long-term results, but can justify itself.
If we are
going to be realistic about Myers, he fills a big need for the Royals in RF,
but he might carry downside. Most scouts
view his bat as great—terrific patience, really good power, and solid contact with
a great ability to barrel up balls for more line drives. That said, none of the tools, even the power,
is viewed as truly elite. I have heard
no one say that he has 80 power like Stanton, nor does he show Stanton’s
patience. I hear that he has an
outstanding hit tool, and he is patient. His defense could be average because he is
athletic, but a bit of a bumbler still.
It is within the realm of possibility that he is average, or close to
it, like Rasmus. However, he will never
be a plus defender, building up WAR with consistent defense and base
running. His value will all come from
hitting. Even if power is a 65-70 (which
it almost certainly won’t start as), he will have to maintain his patience, or
face being mediocre.
I have heard
scouting report making the comparison of Giancarlo Stanton. It makes sense. Intense power despite a wiry frame. However, even with good patience and power
from Myers, he is not as good with either tool.
Another scouting comp often made is Hunter Pence. Goofy swings, bodies, all-out attitudes, and
skills are similar. However, Myers may
have to work to have that type of defense, and he will have to evolve as a base
runner, or he will diminish his own value.
The key differences between Pence and Myers are power and strikeout
rates. They are both patient
hitters. The K rates favor Pence and the
power favors Myers. In AA at age 23,
Pence showed an ISO of .250, and at 24 in AAA, it was .232. Myers has a clear upperhand. However, at 23 in AAA, the K% was 18.4. That is superior to Myers in AA by a decent
amount. Pence has played well in the
majors keeping a BB% at 7.3% for his career with Ks at 18.5%. There were some early career struggles with
this. Myers has never had this success
against Ks. If Myers can counteract the
higher Ks (keep it under 25%) with more power than Pence has shown (.187 ISO
career for Pence, so .210 or so for Myers) above average offensive production
will exist. If he can do that with
average defense, he is a valuable player.
Over 6 years, Pence has averaged a 3.52 fWAR with no outstanding single
seasons (highest is 4.7). With Myers
potential power and Ks, the ceiling and floor of Hunter Pence do not
apply. I could see a fall-off year of
two from Myers, but still see mostly above average play, and maybe a year or
two of outstanding play, just over the first contract.
We don’t
know what Wil Myers is, yet. The serious
questions are: can he generally sustain plus power, and can he sustain his plus
patience? The failures ahead of him
either were not patient at the plate, not as powerful, dealt with injuries, or
just couldn’t cut it in the majors. My
guess for Myers is a good player, with a chance of really good. However, the option of bad is certainly still
on the table. If he does end up
providing 25 WAR over 7 seasons, which may be modest, and the Royals decide to
trade him, they had better get a pretty serious return. I am ignoring the potential to be even better
than that even though it is very real.
A superior
return might come from lower level prospects, even like Jake Odorizzi, who
might yield an interesting pitcher.
There are several teams who might be looking to sell due to either being
uncompetitive or deep. Three names that
pop into my head as buy-low candidates are Boston’s Jon Lester, Atlanta’s Tommy
Hanson, and Oakland’s Brett Anderson.
There are rumors that Myers is up for grabs for Jon Lester. I assume this is a Red Sox generated rumor
since it is wildly beyond the pale. Lester
has seen his fastball and Ks fade, which sort of kills his desirability, much
less giving up a legitimate super prospect.
There are rumors of Shields for Myers, as well. While I find that trade more desirable, I still
find it awful. Hanson is a Brave and Braves’
fans hate him. Dayton is, no doubt, intrigued. Unfortunately, his fastball is badly down,
too. If this is a matter of injury, it
is one thing, but that is pretty unlikely.
While his fastball has slowed, his changeup remains the same speed. He still might be an interesting option for
the right (low) price, but he might be on the verge on Jonathan
Sanchezism.
The one I
really like is Brett Anderson. Anderson is
finally healthy for the first time in awhile (2009?), and in 6 regular season
contests (not including one good postseason start—4 runners, 0 runs, and 6 Ks
over 6.0 Inn), he yielded a 3.06 xFIP, his ERA and FIP were better. Anderson, if truly healthy, and I believe he
is—based on TJ rates and no inside knowledge—could be a borderline #1
starter. He is inked for 3 more years, 2
of which are team option years. He is
Mr. Groundball, so the HR suppressing Coliseum doesn’t even make use of his
best weapon. His K% is 6.89 for his
career, which is mostly not good, but decent.
His BB% is 2.19, which is darn good.
His K/BB is plenty good, he was once a top 10 prospect, when his HR/FB
rate is good, he’s great. When it is
bad, he’s okay. A high BABIP and injury
history are downers, but his career ERA, FIP, and xFIP are 3.57, 3.53, and
3.55. If he’s healthy, I have a good
guess how he will do over the next 3 years, you guys. There is reason to believe some bad stats in
2011 were the result of a pre-TJ injury, so he might be even better. Oakland currently has Tommy Milone, Jarrod
Parker, A.J. Griffin, Dan Straily, and Travis Blackley. This does not include injured Dallas Braden
(who is a FA, but may return), re-signed Bartolo Colon, or prospects. Prospects include A.J. Cole (potential ace,
still a bit away), Brad Peacock (inexplicably bad 2012 looking for a
bounceback), and 1st rounder Sonny Gray (who might fill in as soon
as next season). There are rumors the A’s want to bring back McCarthy. Without prospects, Braden, McCarthy, or
Anderson, that is 6 pitchers filling 5 spot.
If the A’s lose Brett, they can still send Blackley or Straily to AAA to
start the year. Or they can cut
Colon. If they sign McCarthy, TWO guys
can start in AAA, or 1+cut Colon (I am assuming the potential for non-roids
Colon to be regular old and bad). That
is some serious flexibility, and the A’s are all about having more prospects
and generally winning deals. Heck, even
with all the available pitching, the A’s would probably demand at least one
more good pitcher. When the A’s unloaded
Gio and Cahill, it was assumed they were competing for 2014/15 as a start date,
yet the farm isn’t really loaded. If
they are gearing up for the current AND the future, they could use some help on
the infield, especially one of the left side positions. Addison Russell is probably the future at SS
or 3B, but the low budget team is still looking for the other piece. The OF of today is darn good—Crisp (FA in
1014), Smith (FA in 2015), Cespedes (FA in 2016), Reddick (FA in 17). Some contracts will work themselves out, and
other might have to get moved if the arbitration costs are too great. The future seems decent (Grant Green either
this year or next to replace Crisp, Michael Choice in a corner eventually,
probably taking out Smith, Michael Taylor could be an option next season if he
puts the tools together), but by 2016, another OF might be useful, especially
since the expectations haven’t been met for those prospects. So, if Oakland is a “get good players” team
or a “fill in holes” team, getting prospects could be appealing. Let me suggest a trade of:
RHP Jake
Odorizzi
RHP Kyle
Smith
OF Jorge
Bonifacio
SS Orlando
Calixte
for
RHP Brett
Anderson
The Royals
surrender a guy around prospect #30, then several guys who are fringe top 100,
but most would put all 3 at least slightly out of the top 100. If Bonifacio or Calixte doesn’t do it for
Oakland, Cheslor Cuthbert could be injected (a former top 100 on a down year)
and would let the A’s double down on finding another left side compliment. Smith produced a 1.98 FIP in R+/A ball, and
he averaged over 5 innings a start at age 19.
Wowza. He is short, but Fangraphs
has him as the #10 Royals prospect, and believes he could be a #3 or #4 starter
around 2015. Calixte is a 20 year old
SS, and between A/A+, he showed terrific defense and a .337 WOBA despite
getting his power sapped in Wilmington (which happens to pretty much everybody
ever. Bonifacio is the #7 prospect for
KC (Fangraphs), and has the potential to be an above average right fielder in
every way except power, where it flashes plus talent. He could be a starting RF by 2014, and might
realize his power slightly after that.
If the preference is Cuthbert, he was a top 100 rated player by most
groups prior to last season, but just lost all power this season. He is still very young at 3B in, guess where,
Wilmington. If Oakland scouts like any
of these guys, take 4 of 5, and call it a day.
Oakland immediately gets a new top prospect in Odorizzi, and they reload
the system with a multitude of options, or pieces to combine and trade. They save about $5M this year that could go
into their infield or McCarthy. The
option years cost $8M and $12M. Adding
to the pitching quality (in a young stable), they can flip guys for IF, too. The deal is fair (not a far stretch from the
Greinke trade: Odorizzi, budding SS, OF potential, potential other arm. These guys aren’t as close as Cain and
Escobar, but the potential is higher, and Odorizzi can contribute to a rotation
now.
The Royals
get a potential top-ish of the rotation starter for the next 3 seasons at a
generally affordable rate, though they take on injury risks. While losing Odorizzi sucks (potential to be
a #2 - #4 starter), the Royals get the benefit of a #2 now (probably), and they
don’t lose any core pieces of the future or mega-talents (Myers, Zimmer, Starling,
Mondesi, Ventura). A rotation of
Anderson, Guthrie, Duffy, Paulino, and either Mendoza, Lamb, Zimmer, or Ventura
looks pretty decent, and doesn’t really miss Odorizzi. Both Oakland and Kansas City would
benefit. It is a little weird for a division
winner to sell a good starter for future benefits, but poor teams have to do
this.
This trade
offer is reasonable for James Shields as well, mostly because the plight of
pitching depth and no money is an issue for the Rays as well. Shields only has two years of control left,
and while he is a safer bet to be healthy, eat innings, and probably be better
(3.25 xFIP over last 2 seasons), he might cost more, and Bill James has him
pitching to a 3.75 FIP, so…maybe not ideal.
I’m still not selling Myers for him at all, even if Myers is up and
down, and only slightly above average.
Two years of a 9 fWAR pitching vs. seven years of 25 fWAR hitting is a
significant loss—especially when the current Royals RF is terrible. Losing 4 guys who can be 2.0 – 2.5 guys for 7
years each is valuable (let’s say 2 prospects reach that level—it is still
reasonable stuff), but still acceptable for the Royals. Using the Greinke trade again, the cost of 2
years of a bona fide ace is (1) legitimate pitching prospect, (2) legitimate IF
prospect, (3) OF with potential, and (4) arm with potential, and a couple pieces
must be ready to contribute. I’m sure
the Royals could include Francoeur if anybody wants him (he really should have
value as a platoon guy [122 career OPS+ vs. LHP, last season as much an anomaly
as the good one—he should be around replacement level as an everyday guy], and
if the Royals pick up enough money that he is being paid like a platoon player
(probably going to have to send at least $5M), I think they could flip him for
a decent D – prospect. What? That isn’t a thing? Well, nothing will be fine, too. And that chunk is probably the pipiest part
of the dream, so never mind, I guess.
Still, the Royals are giving a MLB ready RHP to fill the void, which
allows the Rays to flip other starters for other current needs, AND sets up the
future. The Rays will see a dip in SP
production (and because they have a really pitcher-friendly park, I expect it
not to be a terrible dip), but then can flip the other pitching to fill out the
roster. If putting Francouer and money
on top (so Fuld can platoon with Frenchy) or adding Giavotella (to try and put
Zobrist at SS) change any hearts and minds, it is obviously doable. The Rays seem interested in a catcher, too, and
could probably send one pitcher between Archer, Cobb, or Odorizzi to Toronto
for the likes of Arencibia; probably not Niemann, but you never know. In fact, maybe 3-way trade that guy.
The bottom
line is that the Royals want another starter, but no one legitimately on the
market is worth a top 3 prospect. Is
Matt Moore? Oh, I’d say so. Myers AND Odorizzi might not be enough top
end talent for that move, but I doubt moving Moore is on Tampa Bay’s wish
list. The Royals should be, and are
focusing on bringing in a #2—nearly #1 talent.
The options they should look at are Shields, Anderson, and MAYBE Hanson
since his prospect price tag should be so low.
However, none of these guys is worth a top 3 prospect. The length of contract, immediate financial
cost, and most of all—talent ceiling is not a sufficient return. The Royals aren’t trying to land Clayton
Kershaw, David Price, Chris Sale, or Matt Cain, here. These guys are the next step down, and the
next step down does not deserve a mega-return.
According to Fangraphs, last year, Shields was the 18th best
pitcher in baseball. Anibal Sanchez was
the 22nd and he is younger. Most people
believe that for $15M a year, he can be yours for 5 years, at the cost of no
prospects. Shields, will cost $9M and
$12M. $9M over the next 2 years is non
insubstantial, but it isn’t a back breaker.
The next 3 seasons would be costly, but Shields will cost about that
match on the market—and you’re asking the Royals to give up the 2nd
best prospect in baseball just to shorten a contract and minimize future
expenses? Oh crap, that might work.