*Per KFFL,
the player with the most targets last year was Pierre Garcon with 182. The highest tight end was superstar Jimmy
Graham with 142—12th among all receivers. The second, third, and fourth tight ends show
up at 27, 28, and 29 overall. Of the top
43 targeted receivers, a list that includes Brian Hartline, Nate Washington, and
Emmanuel Sanders—only six of them are tight ends. 43 is kind of a selective end point—it is right
at 100 targets. The point still
stands. Targets, which are the best
indicator of catches, are very tough to come by for tight ends. Often, they find themselves fantasy-relevant
only because of touchdowns—sudden spikes in any otherwise inconsistent season. TDs are obviously important for every
position, but each “6” is way more important in a smaller pie.
UNFORTUNATLEY,
it is very difficult to predict touchdown totals, as these are the most
volatile stats. You can look at red zone
targets—hopefully over multiple seasons—and get a little idea of TDs, I
suppose. Nothing is a guarantee on TDs
for future seasons. Guys like Graham and
Gronkowski—they are locks for TDs since they are the dominant receivers on
their teams, but everyone else is sketchy.
Even though touchdowns reign supreme with tight ends, their volatility
makes them unreliable. Looking at
targets is the safer and only reasonable way to evaluate tight ends.
How can we
predict future targets? Well, one good
way is looking at past targets. Then,
you can consider player talent, offensive system, and possibly most important
of all: the guy throwing the ball.
Player talent can be gauged with scouting, whether amateur/personal or
professional. The offensive system is
often based on speculation, but can be an indicator of tight end targets,
generally. The guy throwing the ball can
hint with completion percentage, preference for tight ends, and overall
production that has to go SOMEWHERE.
Based on these criteria: who are the best tight ends for next
season. The only way to be thorough is
to go through every team. Let’s do it.
AFC WEST
DENVER
BRONCOS
PLAYER(S):
Julius Thomas
TARGETS:
Last year, at the beginning of the season, ESPN had Thomas as the 20th rated
TE. There were two primary reasons for
the ranking: first, it was his first season as a starter—and even that status
was vaguely questionable (though if you’d listened to Denver media, you would
know that he was starting consistently through OTAs and the preseason—and was
impressing—also, Montee Ball was struggling—LISTEN UP ESPN!!!). Second, ESPN questioned the number of targets
he could receive. Because it isn’t like Peyton Manning had ever played with two
top WRs, an oft-used slot WR, and still used a tight end before.
TALENT: Originally
a 4th round pick, Thomas was drafted almost entirely on athletic
potential. He played one season in
college, was a top tight end in a small conference, and got himself taken
mostly on the athleticism shown in his basketball career. Sure enough, after the injuries faded and he
found the field, his athletic talents have shown through. He is less raw than at the beginning of the
season, and the Antonio Gates-comp makes a strong ceiling for the guy. At the
very least, he can be a bigger, faster Dallas Clark for Manning.
SYSTEM: A
similar one that created Dallas Clark’s best seasons. Thomas had 65 rec, 788 yards, 12 TDs, and 90
targets (9th among TEs).
During Clark’s best and healthiest run in IND (07-09), he averaged 113.3
targets, 856.6 yards, and recorded TD seasons of 11, 6, and 10. This is TE-friendly, but it is everybody
friendly with Peyton.
QB: Hey,
it’s the best QB in NFL history in his old phase.
OVERALL: Stock
Down, but still a strong receiver. You
can’t expect a repeat on TDs, even with some past Dallas consistency. Manning is not a sure thing to repeat a
record-smashing performance, so expect don’t expect the same TD totals. He will probably end up in the middle of the
2nd tier with guys like Witten and Davis. Still plenty of value, but imagine someone
will reach for it. And then it isn’t
value, anymore.
PROJECTIONS: 70 rec, 850 yds, 8 TD, 133 points
KANSAS CITY
CHIEFS
PLAYER(S): Anthony
Fasano, Travis Kelce
TARGETS: In
limited time, Kelce saw no targets before his season ended with an early
injury. Fasano, who dealt with multiple
injuries during the season, ended with 33 targets. Sean McGrath ended as the team leader with 43
targets. There are two interesting
things about McGrath. (1) His giant beard and jovial personality earned him the
moniker “Duck Dynasty.” It was before Phil Robertson informed the world that he
doesn’t understand why gay men don’t like vaginas.* (2) He wasn’t going to make
this team without an injury. As it
happens, Fasano, Kelce, and Moeaki all got injured, and that is how he got 43
targets. Expect those to go to Kelce in
the future.
*Robertson
noted that it was illogical to prefer a man’s anus to a lady’s vagina (for
doin’ it). On one level, I agree that
vaginas are a pretty neato hole for doin’ it purposes, and all things being
equal, seem objectively preferable.
Problem is, all things aren’t equal outside of that hole. Analogy try for the straight guy: to whom
would you rather do the sex? A wholly
unattractive woman with an above average vagina, or a highly attractive woman
with an average vagina? If you chose the
supermodel like a normal person, you probably disagree with Phil’s premise of
deciding on sexual partners because of the quality of sex hole alone.
TALENT: In 8
seasons, Anthony Fasano has never caught more than 41 passes, and has been
targeted over 59 times only once. He is
a good blocker, and has good hands. He
isn’t going to set the world on fire.
Kelce, a third round pick a season ago, is a very physical runner with
solid hands, great size, and strong blocking skills. He is significantly more likely to go off
than Fasano, but is hardly a lock.
SYSTEM: Andy
Reid WCO doesn’t really obsess over TEs, but certainly gives TEs a chance with
a lot of crossing routes and short outs for TEs. Kelce’s physicality can fit the system, but
isn’t likely to be a downfield mega-target.
QB: Alex
Smith LOVED Vernon Davis in SF, but that might be because he was the best
receiver on those teams. By a whole
lot—my apologies to geriatric Randy Moss.
He is an underrated QB by most, but he still won’t take big chances, and
will enjoy dump passes to Kelce—to get Kelce rumbling. He threw 5 TDs to TEs last season.
OVERALL: There
is hidden upside in Kelce, but the commodity is entirely unknown. The likelihood of both Fasano and Kelce being
semi-productive is good, but in a “they are both ranked between 20-40 TEs overall”
way. A major breakout seems kind of
unlikely, but HEAR ME NOW: NFL.COM’s DRAFT PAGE COMPED HIM TO GRONK!
PROJECTIONS:
Kelce 40 rec, 480 yds, 3 TD, 66 pts;Fasano 35 rec, 420 yds, 4 TD, 66 pts
SAN DIEGO
CHARGERS
PLAYER(S):
Antonio Gates, Ladarius Green
TARGETS:
Ladarius Green had a nice 3 game stretch with 9 catches on 16 targets for about
200 yards and 2 TDs. But don’t get it
confused, old man Gates (34 next season) was 4th in the NFL in TE
targets. I’m guessing a transition is
coming, but is it fair to expect it in one season?
TALENT:
Gates is no longer the mega player he once was, stretching the field. In his last 4 games, during a playoff run, he
averaged just over 4 targets a game. He
isn’t the same, but he still has a role—having 872 yards last season. Green is a tall, athletic player, and a
former 4th rounder. He could
develop into a good weapon, but he isn’t there, yet, and he isn’t a lock to get
there. Plenty of potential, though. He could be a mismatch machine.
SYSTEM: SD
is open to throwing downfield or short.
With the offensive line improved from a year ago, I think Rivers is
back. Even though he is getting older,
he is young enough as QBs go. The tight
end can occasionally be a focus, so there is hope for any talented players.
QB: Rivers
is good, and always leaves a chance for success for his best players.
OVERALL: I
like both TEs, but tend to think Gates’ age is a hindrance, and Green hasn’t
shown anything consistent. I don’t
expect a ton of 2 TE.
PROJECTIONS:
Gates: 60 rec, 690 yds, 5 TD, 99 pts; Green: 25 rec, 400 yds, 3 TD, 52 pts
OAKLAND
RAIDERS
PLAYER(S):
Mychal Rivera
TARGETS: In
his rookie year, he had 60 targets and 400 yards. That is pretty good for a rookie season.
TALENT: Rivera
has some talent, no doubt about it, and is more of a “stretch the field” than
red zone guy. That said, the Raiders
could certainly be in the market for a new TE.
Then again, they need plenty of things, especially weapon-wise on
offense.
SYSTEM: There
is at least one more season of Dennis Allen, so expect more of…the same?
QB:
Pryor? New guy? McGloin?
I’m not enthused.
OVERALL: I
wouldn’t be too enthused about anybody for this position right now.
PROJECTIONS:
50 rec, 500 yds, 5 TDs, 80 points
AFC NORTH
CINCINNATI
BENGALS
PLAYER(S): Jermaine
Gresham, Tyler Eifert
TARGETS: Gresham
had 6 and Eifert had 60. The writing is
on the wall for Gresham. This is the
last year of his contract, and Eifert is the new high draft pick in town. I’d like to say that Gresham is so totally on
the way out by the way the season ended, but in the final 4 games, in a playoff
hunt, Eifert had only 11 targets to Gresham’s 12 (and Jermaine missed a
game). Even though this season had a
significant drop in Jermaine’s targets, he was still a big part of the
system. I expect more from Eifert next
season, but both will get action, limiting the upside of the other.
TALENT: Gresham
was a first round, Eifert is a second, but is the new blood. He is a good pass catcher, and should turn
into THE GUY, but probably not until 2015.
SYSTEM: The
Bengals are shifting from Jay Gruden to Hue Jackson this season. I expect a little more Gio Bernard, and only
a little less Law Firm. I would guess
not a lot will change from last year.
QB: Dalton
is capable, but isn’t a superstar who will “make” his receivers. In fact, it looks like it may be the other
way around after some of his recent performances.
OVERALL: I
like Eifert if he is the only guy, but picking which games will be successes
for him seem like a good way to go insane.
In a way, I hope he has a mediocre year so he can be a deeper sleeper in
2015.
PROJECTIONS:
Eifert: 50 rec, 500, 4 TD, 74 points; Gresham: 40 rec, 400 yards, 4 TD, 64
points
PITTSBURGH
STEELERS
PLAYER(S): Heath
Miller
TARGETS: Miller
is still the guy in PIT, and even though he was coming off an ACL injury, he
didn’t show a ton of rust. His age (31)
is beginning to show. Before his 2012
injury, he was having a great season with the most targets of his career.
TALENT: Heath
was a first round pick, but has always been just “pretty good.” I think he has
enough gas for one more decent season.
SYSTEM: Todd
Haley wants to run, but he also makes great WRs. There isn’t a lot to teach a vet, so
hopefully he flashes back to 2012.
QB: Roethlisberger
is good, but isn’t great like many thought during his Super Bowl wins. He is making Antonio Brown into something
fantasy special even though there are no off-the-charts abilities. Ben is good enough that Miller should have a
better year in 2014.
OVERALL: I
like Miller to bounce back with more scores and maybe a few more yards, but age
is an issue. Paulson may make him
obsolete soon.
PROJECTIONS:
65 rec, 600 yds, 4 TD, 84 points
BALTIMORE
RAVENS
PLAYER(S): Dennis
Pitta
TARGETS: In
his second and third seasons, Pitta saw his targets go from 56 to 93. In his first 4 games, until he was injured,
Pitta had 33 targets. That would be just
over 8/game. After the injury, Dickson
did not take over, just getting 43 targets.
The TE production came from Dallas Clark. Pitta has to be the guy next
season.
TALENT: A
former 4th rounder, Pitta has good size and hands. It looked like he was about to turn a corner
into the top of the third TE tier. Maybe
he can get back there in 2014.
SYSTEM: Without
Pitta, a lot of deep balls were forced, and the running game went from “really
bad” to “still really bad.” The weapons available make the system sufficiently
TE friendly.
QB: Joe
Flacco is not a good decision maker, but he has one hell of an arm. That means he might force it to Pitta more
often—A FANTASY OWNER’S DREAM!
OVERALL: I
think Pitta is a good sleeper, provided he is back to 100%.
PROJECTIONS:
70 rec, 720 yds, 5 TDs, 102 pts
CLEVELAND
BROWNS
PLAYER(S):
Jordan Cameron
TARGETS: In
the first 4 games of the season, Cameron had 30 catches on 43 targets. Over the remaining 12 games, he had 50
receptions on 74 targets. Cameron came
on so strong at the beginning of the year, he still was the 5th
overall fantasy TE at the end. But you
can’t ignore the 4.2 catches/game on 6.2 targets. Take that average over 16 games, and you get
68 receptions.
TALENT: A
former 4th round pick, Cameron has good size, and although it is
nothing elite, he uses it well. I think
his first 4 games created the illusion that he was a Gronk-like TD machine with
unstoppable size. He is strong in the
red zone, and may get better, but he isn’t an absurd mismatch right now.
SYSTEM: The
Browns haven’t hired an offensive coordinator, yet, so this is a big unknown
factor.
QB: Ditto
this. A new QB is coming, but who will
it be? Or maybe it will be more Jason
Campbell. Either way, it won’t be
Weeden, who made Cameron’s biggest games happen.
OVERALL: I
think he is a little bit overrated right now, and Norv Turner is leaving (he
has some good TEs in his history). A lot
will depend on what Cleveland does. I’ll
have to visit this later.
PROJECTIONS:
J. Cameron, 70 rec, 780 yds, 6 TD, 114 points
AFC EAST
NEW ENGLAND
PATRIOTS
PLAYER(S): Rob
Gronkowski, Another?
TARGETS: In
just 6 complete games, Gronk had 62 targets.
That is obscene. He is ranked
lower because the overall points should be lower than others. It is unclear how much time he will miss
because of his ACL, and he might not be quite the same at first. The targets
are plentiful for this elite talent, though.
TALENT: Size,
strength, hands are elite. If he is
healthy, he is better than Jimmy Graham.
SYSTEM: This
is ever-changing. The one constant is
Tom Brady.
QB: Give
Brady a decent receiver, and he’ll put up good numbers. Look at Julian Edelman. Give him elite talents like Moss or Gronk,
and watch records break. It is why
people were drafting Zack Sudfeld last season.
Remember when Matthew Berry was excited about Sudfeld, and then he was
cut after 1 game and 0 fantasy points.
Good times.
OVERALL: The
thing that makes Gronk special, even if he misses games, is that the games he
plays will be mega-altered. The point
totals you expect each game usually range from 10-25. That is absurd. Even if he isn’t healthy, it is reasonable to
draft him second among TEs, because the games he starts, he is #1 in the game.
PROJECTIONS:
Let’s see what the injury people say
MIAMI
DOLPHINS
PLAYER(S): Charles
Clay
TARGETS: Clay
played plenty as a 2nd TE and H-Back in his first seasons in Miami,
but he broke out big in year 3 for 97 targets, 7th among all TEs
(ESPN has him at 103 targets).
TALENT: He
thrives in an H-Back type of role, and is a vicious runner after the
catch. He wasn’t an elite talent, but
can be dangerous in Miami.
SYSTEM: They
aren’t going to go deep to him, but it is conducive to his strengths.
OVERALL: He was a surprise, and it will be interesting to see his repeat attempt.
PROJECTIONS:
70 rec, 750 yds, 5 TD, 105 pts
NEW YORK
JETS
PLAYER(S): Jeff
Cumberland
TARGETS: Cumberland
had 40 targets last season. He was
overshadowed by Kellen Winslow Jr. who probably won’t be back next season since
he rubbed some people the wrong way. The
people: just himself. At Target. In case the joke wasn’t clear at first.
TALENT: Cumberland
isn’t a special talent. The Jets badly
need an upgrade.
SYSTEM: The
Jets want use multiple backs, and several receivers, and none can be very good.
OVERALL: I
will re-evaluate when they have their guy, but I still am probably staying
away. Mostly because of the next section…
QB: Geno
Smith isn’t going to be very good, but surrounding him with middling talents is
pretty cruel. He thrived at WVU (kind
of) with short passes where others made the most of the play (ie Tavon
Austin). He led the Jets to 8 wins, so
he might still get better (I recall the Jets winning playoff games with Mark
Sanchez, so, you never know). Still, I
don’t think Geno is good enough to make anyone a major fantasy threat. It would have to be vice versa.
RANK: No.
PROJECTIONS:
Who knows?
BUFFALO
BILLS
PLAYER(S): Scott
Chandler
TARGETS: Coming
off a major injury, Chandler had the most targets of his career last season:
81. He is also a free agent. My guess is he isn’t the Bills tight end next
season.
TALENT: We
know what Chandler is. A tall guy with
pretty good hands.
SYSTEM: He
found more targets, so that is good. It
could help the next guy.
QB: Manuel
needs to stay healthy. There is a chance
he could make a talented TE a special sleeper.
OVERALL: Pass
PROJECTIONS:
40 rec, 550 yds, 5 TD, 85 pts
AFC SOUTH
INDIANAPOLIS
COLTS
PLAYER(S): Dwayne
Allen, Coby Fleener
TARGETS: From
his first to his second season, Fleener went from 48 to 88 targets. Dwayne Allen went from 66 to 2 and out for
the season. I anticipate an increase for
Allen next season, and a decrease for Fleener.
BOLD CALL, YOU GUYS!
TALENT: Leading
up to the 2012 draft, there was a fair amount of debate about who the superior
prospect between Fleener and Allen. The
Colts ended up taking Fleener in the 2nd, and Allen fell all the way
to the 3rd. It is now
apparent when they are on the field at the same time. Allen is the more talented player. Fleener is still pretty good and growing, but
Allen was better. If he still IS better,
a big season could be coming.
SYSTEM: A
couple years ago, while the pair of Gronkowski and Hernandez absolutely
murdered the competition (HA!), people wondered if Fleener and Allen could be
their Gronk and Hernanez. Fleener is no
Gronkowski, but Allen might just be all of Hernandez. The Colts say they want to establish the run
first, but I also think the results of more passing—like against the Chiefs—are
undeniable. Could see bunch of 2 TE with the current WRs (and no
first round pick thanks to Trent Richardson).
QB: With an
elite QB like Andrew Luck who has T.Y. Hilton—very good deep threat; not top WR—old
injury-return Reggie Wayne, and Fleener…well, that and the comparison that I am
making for Allen, this could be a pretty big connection.
OVERALL: I
think there is an absolute ton of upside here.
A sleeper favorite.
PROJECTIONS:
65 rec, 700 yd, 6 TD, 100 pts; Fleener 45 rec, 550 yd, 6 TD, 85 pts
TENNESEE
TITANS
PLAYER(S): Delanie
Walker
TARGETS: Walker
was a nice little utility piece in San Francisco for a pretty long time, but he
was nothing relevant to most of the world.
Then he went to the Titans, and made his touches a priority. A career high 86 targets later, and he is
fantasy relevant, kind of.
TALENT: Walker
was generally thought of as a minor bit player in SF. Drafted in the 6th round, he had
to do a lot of things in SF to work as an H-Back, TE, and whatever else. He isn’t a super athlete, but he is smart,
and his role with the Titans makes him a little dangerous.
SYSTEM: Fits
him very well.
OVERALL: I
like him as a back-up in fantasy leagues, but I don’t really love him until
really late.
PROJECTIONS:
60 rec, 600 yd, 4 TD, 84 points
HOUSTON
TEXANS
PLAYER(S): Owen
Daniels, Garrett Graham
TARGETS: In
healthy seasons where he has played at least 15 games, Daniels has had a
minimum of 84 targets. That is a good
deal, if it is consistent. Last season,
if Daniels would have kept up his torrid pace over 16 games (he played 5) just
tripling his stats would have given him 72 receptions, 756 yards, and 9 TDs. That would be 119 points, good for 4th
in my next year projections (then again, I am giving no high TD numbers). In his absence, Graham racked up 89 targets,
but only converted about 55% of those into catches, one of the lowest totals in
the league (among top 50 TEs in targets, only Mercedes Lewis is lower).
TALENT: A
former DII 4th round pick, Daniels turned into a solid tight end for
a long career. Age may become an issue,
and there have been so many injury issues.
SYSTEM: Bill
O’Brien reportedly likes to run a lot of 2 TE formations. That would be good news for Owen and Garrett. Even if he is getting up there in age, he is
still a solid threat, and a little better than Garrett Graham.
QB: We shall
see soon enough. I won’t call this an
advantage, but he will be a #1 overall pick.
That’s gotta mean something (or might mean nothing).
OVERALL: I
like Daniels still—he still has some upside, but if anyone tells me it is for a
full season with 100 targets, call me skeptical. When healthy with good matchups, I still
trust him.
PROJECTIONS:
Daniels 54 rec, 670 yds, 5 TD, 97 pts; 30 rec, 350 yards, 2 TD, 47 pts
NFC WEST
SEATTLE
SEAHAWKS
PLAYER(S): Zach
Miller
TARGETS: Luke
WIllson is around, too, but it isn’t the one who played Drillbit Taylor, so WHO
CARES? Miller had 56 targets last
seasons in 14 games, and 53 in the full season prior.
TALENT: It
looks like his best seasons in Oakland are behind him, now, and Miller is just
an adequate piece. An upgrade might be
sought.
SYSTEM: It
isn’t particularly amenable to TEs at the present.
QB: Russell
Wilson is a great game control QB, and is an outstanding decision maker with
the ability to make a lot of plays. I’m
not sure he will make a star out of anyone just yet, but give him some talent
with which to work, and the stats might head up.
OVERALL: No
deal.
PROJECTIONS:
40 rec, 440 yds, 4 TD, 68 pts
SAN
FRANCISCO 49ERS
PLAYER(S): Vernon
Davis
TARGETS: Davis
was targeted a surprisingly low 84 times last year. Even more surprising, that shouldn’t have
been surprising! He was targeted 61
times in 2012. Kaep doesn’t seem to love
him like Alex Smith did.
TALENT: Davis
is a breakout speedster, and a matchup nightmare. He is a premire player at the top of the 2nd
tier, and was worthy of his high first round selection.
SYSTEM: So
far, the read option hasn’t been great to Vernon’s targets or consistency, but
he has had some monster games, and had 13 TDs last season.
QB: Kaep
likes that he is the best receiver on the team, but with Crabtree back, I
expect it to hurt more than help.
OVERALL: I
love the guy, but 13 TDs is due to regress, and his 850 yards was his highest
in 3 seasons.
PROJECTIONS:
V. Davis, 60 rec, 800 yds, 8 TD, 128 points
ARIZONA
CARDINALS
PLAYER(S): Rob
Housler
TARGETS: The
hope was that Housler would finally break out with a real QB. Instead his targets decreased from 68 to 57.
TALENT: A
former third rounder, he is still young, so hope springs eternal. But in all likelihood, he doesn’t have the
chops to be a starter.
SYSTEM: The
offense seems built to throw to WRs.
QB: Palmer
isn’t going to turn anyone into a superstar at this stage of his career, even
though he is a solid QB.
OVERALL: I’m
not taking him. Zona might be smart to
upgrade.
PROJECTIONS:
40 rec, 450 yds, 2 TD, 57 TD
ST. LOUIS RAMS
PLAYER(S): Jared
Cook
TARGETS: In
his first 7 games with Sam Bradford, Cook had 42 targets. In his final 9, he had 43. The difference is small enough that it isn’t
relevant, but that is 6 targets vs. 5.
We have a good idea of who Cook is now, but at age 26 with Bradford, a
bump is possible.
TALENT: Cook
is a great athlete, but hasn’t seemed to put it all together.
SYSTEM: The
offense seems great when it gets the ball to its playmakers in space. This is good for Cook.
QB: Bradford
fits the system, though he won’t set the world on fire. I’m not sure I buy the good chemistry with
Cook thing. Whoa, just got some serious
Breaking Bad vertigo for a second.
OVERALL: He
is a good backup or fill-in for a bye week—will be relevant if he hits a TD
spike.
PROJECTIONS:
55 rec, 730 yards, 4 TD, 97 pts
NFC NORTH
GREEN BAY
PACKERS
PLAYER(S): Jermichael
Finley, Man of Mystery
TARGETS: I
kind of think Finley will leave via free agency, and someone new will take his
place. Whoever this stranger is, let him
know I am interested. In a deep dark
FANTASY way…sexually.
TALENT: Finley
always had great athleticism and was one step away from really stretching the
field. Giving him reliable hands might
go a long way. Let’s face facts,
though. The solution isn’t in house as
Andrew Quarless is not an ideal #1.
SYSTEM: With
a real RB, a healthy Cobb, Lacy, AND a tight end? This is reminiscent of Manning with Edge,
Harrison and Wayne. Maybe it isn’t quite
that, but for the WCO they run, these personnel fit great. TE is the major missing piece offensively.
QB: Rodgers
is an elite QB—the type who makes his WRs WAY better.
OVERALL: I’m
excited for the new guy, starring DJ Qualls.
And I think Zooey Deschanel is in it.
Awful.
PROJECTIONS:
TBD
CHICAGO
BEARS
PLAYER(S): Martellus
Bennett
TARGETS: Over
the past 2 seasons with NY and CHI, Bennett has had 90 and 96 targets. He has caught 55 and 65 balls. We are getting a pretty good idea of who he
is.
TALENT: He
was a second round pick by Dallas, but he was used infrequently due to Jason
Witten existing. Used as a #1, he is
about average among #1 TEs. Solid.
SYSTEM: The
offense looks as good as it has since Cutler has been there.
QB: Cutler
is good for the system, and is a better fit with Bennett than Eli Manning or
Tony Romo was.
OVERALL: Some
people think there is all the upside in the world. He is 27, so this could be a peak season.
PROJECTIONS:
60 rec, 710 yds, 5 TDs, 101 pts
DETROIT
LIONS
PLAYER(S): Brandon
Pettigrew
TARGETS: Pettigrew’s
targets have gone from 126 to 100 to 64 over the past 3 seasons.
TALENT: The
potential is still there. He is young
and a former first round pick
SYSTEM: There
is no telling what Jim Caldwell will run.
I don’t trust him very much.
QB: Caldwell
said he will change Stafford’s footwork that has given him problems. If the previous coaching staff was just too
dumb to try and teach footwork to Stafford, then I hate them, and they deserved
to be fired long ago. Then again, if it
is just Stafford—which is my guess—Caldwell won’t last.
OVERALL: I
don’t anticipate a sudden resurgence for Pettigrew. Anything is possible and stranger things have
happened, though.
PROJECTIONS:
60, 600 yds, 4 TD, 84 pts
MINNESOTA
VIKINGS
PLAYER(S):
Kyle Rudolph
TARGETS: Rudolph
was ESPN’s #5 TE last draft season.
Almost no drafts that I saw ended with that result. His big 2012 was heavily inflated by 9 TDs, a
feat he did not repeat. He was injured
for half the season and still managed to get 3 TDs.
TALENT: Rudolph
was a high pick out of Notre Dame a couple years ago. Entering his fourth year, he has some talent.
SYSTEM: Here
is where things get interesting. Norv
Turner is going to be the Vikings Offensive Coordinator. His coordinating skills most recently boosted
Jordan Cameron and Trent Richardson.
Perhaps Rudolph is in for a genuine upgrade.
QB: Cassel
or Ponder next year, but someone else new…sooner than later, I would guess.
OVERALL: Interesting,
but probably a guy you want for good matchups only.
PROJECTIONS:
60 rec, 650, 6 TD, 95 pts
NFC EAST
PHILADELPHIA
EAGLES
PLAYER(S):
ZACH ERTZ, BRENT CELEK
TARGETS:
Ertz had 56, Celek had 51.
TALENT: We
know who Celek is. He is a veteran who
provides a big body, good hands, and steady production. Ertz is a high second
round pick who had a very productive rookie season. Breakout potential is sitting there, ready
for the taking.
SYSTEM: Chip
Kelly’s system was thought to need a running QB, but with Foles playing, the
team really took off. With a pure
passer, every man in the system is a potential weapon.
QB: It is
worth noting that all 4 of Ertz’s TDs came from the Foles second half of the
season. Once that offense got going, he
saw some scores.
OVERALL: Even
with a couple goose egg target games, he seemed more capable in the second half
of the year. If he can eliminate those
in his sophomore season, he could be a mega-sleeper.
PROJECTIONS:
Ertz 60 rec, 710 yds, 7 TD, 113 points; Celek 30 rec, 450 yds, 5 TD, 75 points
DALLAS
COWBOYS
PLAYER(S): Jason
Witten
TARGETS: Despite
growing older, Witten still raked in 111 targets last year. He is a model of consistency in getting
targets, but he saw a decrease for the first time last season.
TALENT: He
is a premiere player, even while aging.
SYSTEM: He
has received fewer red zone targets in the past, but a higher octane Cowboys
offense has a use for Witten.
QB: Romo and
Witten have great chemistry. You trust
them as a pair, though Tony appears to love Dez the most nowadays.
OVERALL: Still
a great option, you just might have to overpay for a sure thing Tier 2 guy like
this. That isn’t how you win leagues.
PROJECTIONS:
J. Witten 75 rec, 780 yards, 6 TD, 114 points
NEW YORK
GIANTS
PLAYER:
Brandon Myers
TARGETS:
Myers had a great last season in Oakland, but targets fell to 73 this year.
TALENT: He
is a solid player, but not a game changer or guy who will make the incredible
play.
SYSTEM: This
is the same offense that created Kevin Boss and Martellus Bennett Part II. In other words, the TEs will be kind of “meh."
QB: Eli is a
fine-ish QB, but don’t expect magic.
OVERALL: I
don’t want him. Maybe the Giants won’t
either, soon.
PROJECTIONS:
55 rec, 650 yds, 4 TDs, 89 pts
WASHINGTON
REDSKINS
PLAYER(S):
Jordan Reed
TARGETS: In
8 healthy games, Reed received 58 targets.
After he was injured, his backup kept getting looks (over 40), but Reed
is going to be the guy if he is healthy.
There isn’t a to of receiving talent on this team, and I don’t
anticipate an influx—the RGIII trade really left this team without
options. They overpaid for Garcon, and
have made him a target machine (#1 in the NFL), but they want to get Reed
involved. If he keeps up a pace of
110-120 targets, he will be in the company of the second tier TEs.
TALENT: Reed
is 6’2”, so he isn’t the red zone monster you are likely hoping to get, but he
is a target machine. The comp that shows
up a lot for the 3rd round rookie from Florida known for
athleticism, but not height? How about
“on the field” Aaron Hernandez?
SYSTEM: Anyone
who can be a legitimate weapon fits this system. Read option that favors dump passes fit Reed
well.
QB: RGIII is
still a high level QB. He looked awful
last season, but I believe he will improve.
Give the guy some weapons, and this one looks like a good fit for RGIII.
OVERALL: I
think there is a high ceiling for this type of rookie year success.
PROJECTIONS:
75 rec, 800 yds, 6 TD, 116 points
NFC SOUTH
CAROLINA
PANTHERS
PLAYER(S): Greg
Olsen
TARGETS: Olsen
was 5th in TE targets with 111, tied with Jason Witten.
TALENT: He
has the ability, as a former high first round pick, to outshine Witten any
season now.
SYSTEM: Newton
doesn’t have to do a ton reading defenses, and Olsen is arguably the best
receiver on the team with Steve Smith aging.
QB: Newton
is too good to throw to no one. Then again,
with his legs, maybe I’m wrong.
OVERALL: I
really like Olsen. He isn’t a deep
sleeper—just a mini-one. But you can
land great value on him, and he might give you a top 5 player any given year,
and is a high probability for top 10.
PROJECTIONS:
78 rec. 820 yds, 6 TD, 112 points
NEW ORLEANS
SAINTS
PLAYER(S): Jimmy
Graham
TARGETS: Jimmy
led TEs with 142 targets, 86 receptions, and everything else you can imagine
person doing.
TALENT: Arguably
the best in the game. With Gronk
injured, there is no argument to make against him.
SYSTEM: Fits
him very well.
QB: Drew
Brees, an elite QB, has an elite target while all others are mostly mediocre.
OVERALL: Clearly
the first tight end in football. The
question is: how high can you take him?
Value Based Drafting says you wait on tight ends, but he is so clearly
levels above the next tier, you have to value him specially, right? But what if he doesn’t lead the league in
TDs, that is LIKELY to decrease. It is a
tough call.
PROJECTIONS:
J. Graham NO, 90 rec, 1200 yd, 12 TD: 192 points
TAMPA BAY
BUCCANEERS
PLAYER(S): Timothy
Wright
TARGETS: 76
targets for the rookie
TALENT: Wright
was a surprise sensation. This means he
could bloom even bigger next season, or he could nose dive off a cliff. I would tend to preach caution.
SYSTEM: Tough
to see how the new coaching will impact Wright, but I wouldn’t guess much.
QB: If it is
Mike Glennon, which I expect, I wouldn’t guess a big spike is coming, but I won’t
guess a drop-off, either.
OVERALL: Caution,
but deep sleepers in mega bloom may be present.
This could be a monster.
PROJECTIONS:
60 rec, 620 yds, 5 TD, 92 points
ATLANTA
FALCONS
PLAYER(S): Ghost
of Tony Gonzalez
TARGETS: In
his final season, Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez paved the way for all TEs with
121 targets, second only to Graham. With
TG retiring, the Falcons now have the backup plan of “AAAAAAAHHHHHH!!!!”
TALENT: OH
GOD, NO!!! WE FORGOT TO GET ANOTHER
TIGHT END!!!
SYSTEM: Hello,
what is this?
QB: Matt
Ryan and the fast runny turf guys could make a new tight end piece immediately
effective. Can you imagine Jermichael
Finley here? He would probably be great
at times, but mostly a disappointment still. Maybe a bad example.
OVERALL: Keep
your eyes on this one.
PROJECTIONS:
who knows?
1.
J. Graham NO, 192 points
2.
J. Thomas DEN, 133 points
3.
V. Davis, 128 points
4.
Jo. Reed, 116 points
5.
J. Witten, 114 point
6.
J. Cameron, 114 points
7.
Z. Ertz, 113 points
8.
G. Olsen, 112 points
9.
R. Gronkowski, who knows?
10.
C. Clay, 105 points
11.
D. Pitta, 102 points
12.
M. Bennett, 101 points
13.
D. Allen, 100 points
14.
A. Gates, 99 points
15.
O. Daniels, 97 points
16.
J. Cook, 97 points
17.
Z. Rudolph 95 points
18.
GB TE, 93 points
19.
T. Wright, 92 points
20.
C. Fleener, 85 points
21.
S. Chandler, 85 points
22.
H. Miller 84 points
23.
B. Pettigrew, 84 points
24.
M. Rivera, 80 points
25.
D. Walker, 84 points
26.
B. Myers, 76 points
27.
B. Celek, 75 points
28.
T. Eifert, 74 points
29.
Z. Miller, 68 points
30.
A. Fasano, 66 points
31.
T. Kelce, 66 points
32.
R. Housler, 57 points
33.
L. Green, 52 points
34.
G. Graham, 47 points
