AL Central Individual WAR

There is often talk about what could have been, or even what SHOULD have been in a baseball season.  One of the simplest ways examine the strength of a team is Bill James' Pythagorean Theorem.  The general idea is pretty simple.  When your total runs scored are higher than runs allowed, you are more likely to have more wins than losses.  Obvious, right?  Because of a number of factors not to be discussed here (luck, bullpen effectiveness, etc.), Pythag, while accurate, is often not exactly correct.  It isn't as though it is always off high or low, it represents a stright statistical line that balances quite accurately.  I'm not saying it is perfect, but the baseline for the idea stands the test of time.

One of the most common stats in sabermetric baseball is WAR (Wins Above Replacement).  The formula differs from analyst to analyst, but the two most prevalent formulas exist at baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com.  rWAR (or bWAR) and fWAR respectively.  However, these stats do not consider each game, and how much a player contributed to each individual win--then erase any contribution from losses.  It is a good overview of a player that allows you to know approximately what they can deliver to any one team with their contribution.  When added together, it does not give an exact outcome of a team.

The nice folks at BlueBird Banter give the example of the formula used to construct a WAR win total.  They break down the benefits and flaws of such a system, and reach some interesting conclusions, but either way, you learn some interesting things.

Anyways, that was probably an unnecessary introduction to the stats below.  You see how each individual contibuted to the team's overall success (or lack thereof) in the AL Central.  And that is pretty cool.

Detroit Tigers

Position           Player                         fWAR rWAR

C                     Total                           5.4       5.2

                        Alex Avila                   5.5       5.4

                        Omar Santos               -.1        -.2

1B                                                       7.3       7.1

                        Miguel Cabrera           7.3       7.1

2B                                                       2.4       2.3

                        Ramon Santiago          1.4       1.3

                        Ryan Raburn               1.2       0.9

                        Carlos Guillen             -0.1      0.0

                        Will Rhymes               -0.2      -0.4

                        Scott Sizemore            0.1       0.5

SS                                                        5.1       4.3

                        Jhonny Peralta             5.2       4.4

                        Danny Worth              -0.1      -0.1

3B                                                       0.7       0.1

                        Brandon Inge              -0.4      -0.6

                        Wilson Betemit           0.5       0.4

                        Don Kelly                   0.6       0.3

LF                                                       2.2       1.0

                        Brennan Bosch            1.7       1.4

                        Delmon Young           0.1       -0.1

                        Andy Dirks                 0.4       -0.3

CF                                                       2.8       2.4

                        Austin Jackson            2.8       2.4

RF                                                       -0.1      -1.1

                        Magglio Ordonez        -1.0      -1.9

                        Casper Wells               0.9       0.8

DH                                                      2.9       2.9

                        Victor Martinez           2.9       2.9

P                                                          0.0       -0.3

Total                                                   28.7     23.9

SP                                                       17.6     14.1

                        Justin Verlander          7.0       8.6

                        Max Scherzer              2.7       2.4

                        Rick Porcello               2.7       1.0

                        Brad Penny                 0.8       -0.4

                        Doug Fister                 2.4       2.6

                        Phil Coke                    2.0       0.4

                        Jacob Turner                -0.1      -0.5

                        Andrew Oliver            0.1       0.0

RP                                                       2.7       4.3

                        Jose Valverde              1.0       2.7

                        Joaquin Benoit            1.3       1.5

                        Daniel Schlereth          -0.3      0.7

                        Al Albuquerque          1.3       1.6

                        Ryan Perry                  0.2       -0.4

                        Charlie Furbush           -0.1      0.1

                        Duane Below              0.2       0.1

                        David Pauley              -0.2      -0.3

                        David Purcey              -0.2      -0.4

                        Brayan Villarreal         -0.2      -0.3

                        Adam Wilk                 -0.1      -0.1

                        Brad Thomas               0.0       -0.4

                        Enrique Gonzalez        -0.1      -0.4

                        Lester Oliveros            0.1       -0.1

                        Chance Ruffin                        -0.3      0.0

                        Luis Marte                   0.1       0.1

                        Robbie Weinhardt       0.0       -0.1

                        Don Kelly                   0.0       0.0

Totals                                                  20.3     18.4

fWAR: 49.0, 90.77 wins

rWAR: 42.3. 91.02 wins

Pythag: 89 wins

Actual: 95 wins

Cleveland Indians

Position           Player                         fWAR rWAR

C                                                         4.7       4.7

                        Carlos Santana            3.8       3.9

                        Lou Marson                 0.9       0.8

1B                                                       -0.8      0.2

                        Matt LaPorta               -0.8      0.2

2B                                                       -0.5      0.5

                        Orlando Cabrera         -0.6      -0.1

                        Jason Kipnis                0.8       1.0

                        Cord Phelps                -0.9      -0.8

                        Jason Donald              0.5       0.7

                        Luis Valbuena             -0.3      -0.3

SS                                                        3.6       3.7

                        Asdrubal Cabrera        3.6       3.7

3B                                                       2.7       2.9

                        Jack Hannahan            2.4       2.2

                        Lonnie Chisenhall       0.7       1.0

                        Adam Everett             -0.4      -0.3

LF                                                       1.3       3.2

                        Michael Brantley         1.4       2.2

                        Shelley Duncan           0.9       0.8

                        Austin Kearns             -0.8      0.5

                        Travis Buck                 0.0       0.0

                        Trevor Crowe              0.1       -0.1

                        Jerad Head                  -0.3      -0.2

CF                                                       0.5       0.0

                        Grady Sizemore          0.2       0.5

                        Ezequiel Carrera          0.3       -0.5

RF                                                       1.3       1.5

                        Shin-Soo Choo            1.4       1.5

                        Kosuke Fukudome      -0.1      0.2

DH                                                      1.8       1.9

                        Travis Hafner              1.3       1.4

                        Jim Thome                   0.5       0.5

P                                                          0.0       0.0

Total                                                   14.6     18.6

SP                                                       12.1     3.2

                        Justin Masterson         4.9       4.1

                        Fausto Carmona          1.5       -1.4

                        Josh Tomlin                 1.8       1.9

                        Carlos Carrasco           1.4       0.6

                        Ubaldo Jimenez          1.0       -0.4

                        Mitch Talbot               -0.1      -0.6

                        Jeanmar Gomez           0.7       0.2

                        David Huff                 0.6       -0.6

                        Zach McAllister          0.4       -0.6

                        Alex White                  -0.1      0.2

RP                                                       3.0       5.9

                        Chris Perez                  0.1       1.2

                        Joe Smith                    1.2       2.1

                        Rafael Perez                0.8       0.7

                        Tony Sipp                    -0.1      1.3

                        Vinnie Pestano            1.5       2.2

                        Nick Hagadone           0.1       0.0

                        Justin Germano           -0.1      -0.1

                        Corey Kluber              0.0       -0.1

                        Zach Putnam               0.1       -0.1

                        Josh Judy                    -0.3      -0.2

                        Frank Herrmann          0.0       -0.3

                        Chad Durbin               -0.3      -0.8

Total                                                   15.1     9.3

fWAR: 29.7, 72.82 wins

rWAR: 27.9, 78.35 wins

Pythag: 75 wins

Actual: 80 wins

Chicago White Sox

Position           Player                         fWAR rWAR

C                                                         2.8       1.5

                        A.J. Pierzynski            1.7       0.9

                        Donny Lucy                0.0       0.0

                        Tyler Flowers              0.7       0.3

                        Ramon Castro             0.4       0.3

1B                                                       2.9       3.5

                        Paul Konerko              3.1       3.6

                        Dallas McPherson       -0.2      -0.1

2B                                                       1.1       1.2

                        Gordon Beckham        1.1       1.2

SS                                                        4.9       3.3

                        Alexei Ramirez           4.9       3.3

                        Eduardo Escobar        0.0       0.0

3B                                                       -0.4      -0.2

                        Brent Morel                 0.5       0.5

                        Mark Teahen               -0.4      -0.5

                        Omar Vizquel              -0.5      -0.7

LF                                                       0.6       -0.3

                        Juan Pierre                   -0.4      0.0

                        Lastings Millege          -0.2      -0.3

CF                                                       -0.7      -1.5

                        Alex Rios                    -0.7      -1.5

RF                                                       6.7       7.2

                        Carlos Quentin            2.6       3.2

                        Alejandro de Azo       2.8       2.1

                        Brent Lillibridge         1.3       1.9

                        Dayan Viciedo            0.0       0.0

DH                                                      -2.9      -2.9

                        Adam Dunn                -2.9      -2.9

P                                                          -0.1      -0.1

Total                                                   13.7     12.0

SP                                                       20.5     14.1

                        Mark Buehrle              3.4       3.7

                        Gavin Floyd                3.6       2.7

                        John Danks                 3.2       2.1

                        Phil Humber                3.5       3.3

                        Edwin Jackson            3.1       2.3

                        Jake Peavy                  2.9       1.1

                        Zach Stewart               0.4       -0.5

                        Dylan Axelrod                        0.4       0.6

RP                                                       6.0       7.2

                        Sergio Santos              1.6       1.5

                        Chris Sale                    1.4       2.4

                        Jesse Crain                  0.9       2.3

                        Matt Thornton             1.6       -1.0

                        Will Ohman                 0.2       0.4

                        Jeff Gray                     0.0       0.2

                        Hector Santiago          0.1       0.2

                        Addison Reed             0.1       0.1

                        Jason Frasor                -0.1      0.0

                        Lucas Harrell               0.1       -0.1

                        Josh Kinney                0.2       -0.1

                        Shane Lindsay            0.0       -0.2

                        Brian Bruney               -0.2      -0.3

                        Tony Pena                   0.1       -0.3

Totals                                                  26.5     21.3

fWAR: 40.2, 89.18 wins

rWAR: 33.3, 76.17 wins

Pythag: 75 wins

Actual: 79 wins

Kansas City Royals

Position           Player                         fWAR rWAR

C                     Total                           2.9       1.7

                        Salvador Perez            1.4       1.1

                        Matt Treanor               0.9       0.4

                        Brayan Pena                0.5       0.3

                        Manny Pina                 0.1       -0.1

1B                                                       1.5       1.2

                        Miguel Cabrera           1.5       1.2

2B                                                       1.0       -0.3

                        Chris Getz                   1.0       0.5

                        Johnny Giavotella       0.0       -0.5

                        Mike Aviles                 0.0       -0.3

SS                                                        2.2       2         

                        Alcides Escobar          2.2       2

3B                                                       1.3       1.4      

                        Mike Moustakas          0.7       0.5

                        Wilson Betemit           0.5       0.9

                        Yamaico Navarro        0.1       0.0

LF                                                       7.6       6.2

                        Alex Gordon               6.9       5.9

                        Mitch Maier                0.7       0.3

CF                                                       4.5       3.2

                        Melky Cabrera            4.2       2.9

                        Jarrod Dyson               0.3       0.3

RF                                                       3.0       2.9

                        Jeff Francouer             2.9       2.7

                        Lorenzo Cain              0.1       0.1

DH                                                      1.8       2.4

                        Billy Butler                 1.8       2.4

P                                                          -0.2      0.0

Total                                                   25.6     20.6

SP                                                       10.4     5.4

                        Felipe Paulino             2.6       1.9

                        Jeff Francis                 2.6       1.4

                        Luke Hochevar           2.3       1.7

                        Bruce Chen                 1.7       2.6

                        Kyle Davies                0.7       -0.1

                        Danny Duffy              0.6       0.5

                        Luis Mendoza             0.3       0.6

                        Vin Mazzaro               -0.2      -0.7

                        Sean O’Sullivan          -0.5      -1.6

RP                                                       3.1       9.7

                        Joakim Soria                0.9       0.8

                        Greg Holland              2.0       2.6

                        Blake Wood                0.6       0.9

                        Aaron Crow                0.3       2.1

                        Louis Coleman            0.1       1.6

                        Nate Adcock               0.2       0.2

                        Tim Collins                  0.0       1.1

                        Kanekoa Texeira         0.0       0.2

                        Everett Teaford           -0.1      0.8

                        Mitch Maier                0.0       0.0

                        Kelvin Herrera            -0.2      -0.2

                        Jesse Chavez               -0.2      -0.3

                        Robinson Tejeda         -0.3      -0.1

Totals                                                  13.5     15.1

fWAR: 39.1, 81.56 wins

rWAR: 35.7, 85.22 wins

Pythag: 78 wins

Actual: 71 wins

Minnesota Twins

Position           Player                         fWAR rWAR

C                                                         0.2       -0.1

                        Joe Mauer                    1.8       1.7

                        Drew Butera               -0.8      -1.2

                        Rene Rivera                -0.5      -0.2

                        Steve Holm                 -0.3      -0.3

1B                                                       1.0       0.1

                        Justin Morneau            1.0       0.1

                        Chris Parmalee            1.3       1.2

2B                                                       1.4       0.4

                        Alexi Casilla                1.4       1.8

                        Luke Hughes               0.4       0.3

                        Matt Tolbert                -0.5      -1.4

                        Brian Dinkleman         0.1       -0.3

SS                                                        -2.0      -3.3

                        Tsuyoshi Nishioka       -1.4      -1.8

                        Trevor Plouffe             -0.6      -1.5

3B                                                       0.5       -1.1

                        Danny Valencia          0.5       -1.1

LF                                                       -0.3      -0.4

                        Delmon Young           0.3       0.1

                        Rene Tosoni                -0.5      -0.4

                        Joe Benson                  -0.1      -0.1

CF                                                       4.2       3.4

                        Ben Revere                 2.0       0.8

                        Denard Span               2.2       2.6

RF                                                       3.1       2.6

                        Michael Cuddyer        3.1       2.6

                        Jason Repko                0.0       -0.4

DH                                                      1.9       2.2

                        Jim Thome                   0.8       0.9

                        Jason Kubel                 1.1       1.3

P                                                          0.1       0.0

Total                                                   10.1     3.8

SP                                                       11.4     7.4

                        Carl Pavano                 2.9       2.0

                        Brian Duensing           1.7       0.2

                        Nick Blackburn           0.7       0.5

                        Scott Baker                 2.7       3.8

                        Francisco Liriano        1.0       0.7

                        Anthony Swarzak       1.0       0.9

                        Kevin Slowey             0.4       -0.6

                        Scott Diamond            0.4       0.1

                        Liam Hendriks            0.3       -0.2

RP                                                       -0.4      2.0

                        Matt Capps                 -0.4      2.0

                        Glen Perkins                1.7       2.0

                        Alex Burnett               -0.1      -0.2

                        Jose Mijares                 -0.3      -0.2

                        Joe Nathan                  0.0       0.0

                        Phil Dumatrait             -0.6      0.2

                        Anthony Slama           0.0       0.2

                        Eric Hacker                 0.0       0.1

                        Lester Oliveros            0.1       0.1

                        Michael Cuddyer        0.0       0.0

                        Chuck James               0.1       0.0

                        Kyle Waldrop             -0.1      0.0

                        Jeff Manship               0.0       -0.1

                        Dusty Hughes             -0.4      -0.4

                        Jim Hoey                     -0.4      -0.5

Total                                                   10.7     9.7

fWAR: 20.8, 64.54 wins

rWAR: 13.2, 65.42 wins

Pythag: 62 wins

Actual: 63 wins

Now, it is true that WAR doesn't necessarily predict future WAR, so don't take these numbers to Vegas, but the White Sox weren't so bad, the Royals youth movement looks even scarier, the Tigers should have only won the division at 90 wins, the Indians need a 1B to win, and...Minnesota makes me sad.

2013 MLB Free Agent Pitcher Rankings

2013 FA Pitcher Rankings – (age) (ERA*) (xFIP*) (WAR*)

1)      Zack Greinke (28) (3.37) (3.08) (6.1)

2)      Dan Haren (32) (3.41) (3.27) (5.6)

3)      Cole Hamels (29) (3.39) (3.31) (4.1)

4)      Matt Cain (28) (2.97) (3.98) (4.1)

5)      Tim Hudson (37) (3.07) (3.66) (2.9**)

6)      Gavin Floyd (30) (4.17) (3.69) (4.1)

7)      Anibal Sanchez (29) (3.61) (3.65) (4.1)***

8)      John Danks (28) (3.94) (4.05) (3.5)

9)      Brandon McCarthy (29) (4.17) (4.39) (2.7)****

10)  Shaun Marcum (31) (3.52) (3.93) (2.8)

11)  Jake Peavy (31) (4.33) (3.56) (2.4**)

12)  Ervin Santana (30) (4.11) (4.26) (2.2)

13)  Colby Lewis (33) (4.06) (3.92) (3.5)***

14)  Brett Myers (32) (4.05) (3.75) (2.5)

15)  Francisco Liriano (29) (4.84) (3.98) (2.7)

16)  Jonathan Sanchez (29) (3.86) (4.15) (1.6**)

*Past 3 season average, unweighted

**injury contributions

***Only 2 seasons

****All 543.1 innings div by 3, 3.30ish ERA/xFIP and 4.7 WAR

1) Zack Greinke (28) (3.37) (3.08) (6.1) - Brewers

Greinke has an outlier from the last 3 years--his historic Cy Young 2009.  Then again, his xFIP was still absurd last season.  His K rate became other-worldly in the NL and he really does look like the best available pitcher in years.

2) Dan Haren (32) (3.41) (3.27) (5.6) - Angels

Haren has quietly been exceptionally good for his entire career.  The only thing more amazing than the success is the consistency--even with injuries.  Though his K rate was down this season, he lowered his walks to be among the best in the game.  He is Cliff Lee Light, which is pretty darn/really good.

3) Cole Hamels (29) (3.39) (3.31) (4.1) - Phillies

A top of the rotation guy, though you can’t deny his effectiveness last season.  The numbers are effective and pretty consistent.  He would have to be pretty lucky to ever win a Cy Young, but he is a legitimate ace in his own right.

4) Matt Cain (28) (2.97) (3.98) (4.1) - Giants

Cain has obviously been extremely effective, but his ERA is a full run better than his xFIP suggesting that he has been pretty lucky.  However, he keeps fly balls in the park like nobody else and hasn’t had an opponent BABIP above .263 in the last 3 seasons (.263, .260, .252).  If he keeps throwing dead balls, he is amazing.  If he becomes human or unlucky, he is only slightly above league average.  Still, a high potential pitcher who may be overvalued by reading his ERA.  My guess would be he ends up somewhere in between.

5) Tim Hudson (37) (3.07) (3.66) (2.9**) - Braves

When healthy, old man river (Hudson River!!!) is still a top of the rotation pitcher.  His biggest issue is being 100 years old.  Well, 37, but I rounded up.

6) Gavin Floyd (30) (4.17) (3.69) (4.1) - White Sox

Floyd’s xFIP indicates that he could be an above average starter on many teams.  His ERA hasn’t lived up to those numbers and he will turn 30, but he has strong peripherals.

7) Anibal Sanchez (29) (3.61) (3.65) (4.1)*** - Marlins

I was watching MLB Network, and Mitch Williams talked about the Marlins needing Mark Buerhle.  No argument with acquiring a good SP, until his argument is that Sanchez has under-performed and has to go.  Really?  Because his ERA is pretty good—and it isn’t a fluke.  He is a legitimate and ideal #2 on the majority of pitching staffs.  A switch to the AL might hurt the numbers to the point where you want him to be a #3, but his peripherals stand pretty well.

8) John Danks (28) (3.94) (4.05) (3.5) - White Sox

The second of the White Sox pitchers on the list is younger and has a better ERA, but his peripherals aren’t as strong.  Still, Fangraphs wrote an article calling Danks the “left-handed Edwin Jackson.” Jackson is generally considered to be the 2^nd or 3^rd best pitcher in the 2012 FA class and Danks is around 6^th-10^th.  And LHPs are generally more valuable.  A tribute to both the strength of this class and the weakness of 2012’s.

9) Brandon McCarthy (29) (4.17) (4.39) (2.7)****- A's

McCarthy didn’t pitch in the majors in 2010, and was pretty ineffective in 2009 (though not awful).  However, in 2011, he was a revelation.  A mediocre K rate was assisted by the best control of his career and a really low BB rate.  Over 4 times as many Ks to BBs.  His groundball rate was really good.  His HR/FB was lucky, and pitching in Oakland had to help, but his LOB% wasn’t good.  Next year we learn if McCarthy really “gets it” now, or if it was a fluke.  One sends his value up to #5-#6 on this list, the other might push him to #16 or below. 

10) Shaun Marcum (31) (3.52) (3.93) (2.8) - Brewers

A consistently low WHIP, good control, and effectiveness in the NL Central or AL East.  He isn’t going to overpower anyone, but he is at least a slightly above average pitcher who would be the 4^th best FA SP in 2012.

11) Jake Peavy (31) (4.33) (3.56) (2.4**) - White Sox

Peavy has struggled big-time with injuries over the past few seasons.  He probably can’t bounce back entirely, and could just be “injury prone” now.  He was very good in San Diego (Cy Young good), so it is a shame injuries have taken his career downhill.  He is still worth a look if he can get healthy—in fact, he can be pretty effective in the middle of a rotation with a chance of catching his old spark.

12) Ervin Santana (30) (4.11) (4.26) (2.2) - Angels

Santana flashes great stuff, and one season sticks out and makes these numbers look pretty bad.  His chance to be an ace is pretty much gone, but if he doesn’t lose to much velocity going forward or continues to develop his game, he can be a #2 or #3 in a solid to good rotation.  His past 2 seasons have shown improvement from his poor year.

13) Colby Lewis (33) (4.06) (3.92) (3.5)*** - Rangers

I don’t know what to make of Lewis.  He will be pretty old when this contract comes to pass, but he has been steadily improving his game.  Japan made him a more effective pitcher, because when he left the states, he was abysmal.  Now, he is an above average starter.  He deserves to be up this list if that is sustainable, but I’m guessing he will get a worse deal than younger pitchers I ranked higher.

14) Brett Myers (32) (4.05) (3.75) (2.5) - Astros

Myers has good peripherals generally, but his K rate is just so-so, and was down last season.  If he can bump that above 7 on a consistent basis, he is a solid middle of the rotation arm.

15) Francisco Liriano (29) (4.84) (3.98) (2.7) - Twins

Liriano has had a bunch of sub-2 WAR seasons.  He has dealt with injuries, and set-backs, along with control and velocity issues.  However, he didn’t in 2010 with a 2.95 xFIP, a 9.44 K/9, and a 6.0 WAR.  When he is healthy (rare), he can be an ace.  Then again, that may have been a one hit wonder year.  An ace or a #5.  Risky.

16) Jonathan Sanchez (29) (3.86) (4.15) (1.6**) - Royals

Sanchez is going to strike you out.  And if he ever figures out how to do that with walking the next guy, he will be amazing.  Unfortunately, he gets his Ks by pitching high in the zone and risks walks as a strategic move.  It is the sort of thing that will frustrate a fan into oblivion.  On some nights, he will have it, and will crush all.  On others, he will walk everybody in the stadium.  But most of the time he will go 5-6 innings and give up a couple.  Pretty much a league average, middle of the rotation guy.  Which isn’t too bad.  This year’s version of Sanch-journeyman (better than Sanchize) is probably Hiroki Kuroda, the 5^th best MLB FA SP.  And Sanchez is 16^th.

Strong class.  Of course, several of these guys will be re-signed by their current team.  The Brewers want Greinke back, but I’m not sure how they can afford him (or Reyes) and not Prince.  Haren should test the market because a payday should be there.  Hamels seems content in Philly even though the losing will probably start in 2014.  The Giants will want Cain pretty badly, but he should test the market even if he returns.

The Braves have a good rotation with strong arms arriving, not to mention they might get a Type A pick for Hudson.  At least two of Floyd, Danks, and Peavy should hit the market, right?  Maybe only one—but not three, either?  Hmm.  The Marlins seem disenfranchised with Sanchez for some reason that I cannot understand.  The A’s will want to rebuild, and want a McCarthy draft pick, and they don’t retain starters at significant cost.  Milwaukee definitely won’t get Greinke AND Marcum.

Santana seems like a good bet to hit FA.  If the Angels are smart, they will retain Haren first.  I would be surprised if any of the rest get signed up during the season.  The Rangers have good young pitching and won’t clog things.  Houston and Minnesota need to rebuild, and Kansas City needs to look at someone better than Sanchez for the top of the rotation to compete, while Sanchez can fill in a more competitive rotation's middle.

MLB AWARDS: AL PREDICTIONS

AL AWARDS

Gold Glove

P – Mark Buehrle, CWS

C – Matt Wieters, BAL

1B – Adrian Gonzalez, BOS

2B – Dustin Pedroia, BOS

SS – Alexei Ramirez, CWS

3B – Evan Longoria, TB

LF – Brett Gardner, NYY

CF – Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS

RF – David DeJesus, OAK

Rookie of the Year

8) 1B Mark Trumbo, LAA

.254/.291/.477, OPS: .768, wOBA: .327, wRC+: 105, fWAR = 2.3, rWAR = 2.1

Trumbo proved to be a solid replacement for Kendry Morales.  He played solid defense and showed great power.  However, if wants to have a spot on a future lineup, he will have to get his walk rate up.  His power, even if he is 25, was the best of the rookie class.

7) LF Desmond Jennings, TB

.259/.351/.440, OPS: .791, wOBA: .353, fWAR = 2.4, rWAR = 2.3

Jennings had an up and down season, but he cranked it up in the second half.  His speed is a weapon on defense and on the bases.  His OPS is excellent and he is on the verge of stardom.  However, he only played in just over 60 games, so it is tough to rank him higher.

6) RHP Jeremy Hellickson, TB

13-10, ERA: 2.95, xFIP: 4.72, K/BB: 1.63, fWAR = 1.4, rWAR = 4.2

Hellickson was a top prospect who did not disappoint with a sub-3 ERA.  However, he out-pitched his peripherals by a lot.  Like…a whoooole lot.  It is tough to personally rate him higher when the difference is that significant.

5) RHP Ivan Nova, NYY

16-4, ERA: 3.70, xFIP: 4.16, K/BB: 1.72, fWAR = 2.7, rWAR = 3.5

Nova out-pitched his peripherals, but not nearly as badly as Hellickson did.  The K/BB was a little better, and the fWAR was significantly better.

4) 3B Brett Lawrie, TOR

.293/.373/.580, OPS: .953, wOBA: .413, wRC+: 163, fWAR = 2.7, rWAR = 2.8

He played in 43 games.  If he had played in 100 with these numbers, he would run away with the award.  In a small sample size, it could be a fluke.  But if it isn’t, great googily boogily, that could be close to a 10 WAR season.  As a rookie.  If he is for real, he is fast-tracking to the Hall of Fame.  Which is why I say “heed the small sample size.” That said, he will probably be a monster.  Toronto robbed Milwaukee blind on this one.

3) 2B Dustin Ackley, SEA

.273/.348/.417, OPS: .765, wOBA: .340, wRC+: 117, fWAR = 2.7, rWAR = 2.5

Solid defender, steady bat with decent pop.  At age 23, he is only improving.  A good first year, and he will surely be better next season.

2) RHP Michael Pineda, SEA

9-10, ERA: 3.73, xFIP: 3.53, K/BB: 3.15, fWAR: 3.4, rWAR = 2.8

The most impressive rookie pitcher had to be Pineda.  His K/BB rate shames the other rookies, and he has done it age 22.  The other rookies look like top of the rotation guys, but Pineda is a pure ace and future All-Star on a consistent basis.

1) Winner: 1B Eric Hosmer, KC

.293/.334/.465, OPS: .799, wOBA: .342, wRC+: 114, fWAR = 1.6, rWAR = 1.3

The NLBA’s AL ROY.  The lowest WAR on the list, and yet he takes the award?  Well, the 21 year old played in 128 games, and as a result, is at or around the top of every category, even SBs.  The reason his WAR is so low is an atrocious defensive record.  Despite his high offensive numbers (he needs to improve his walk rate to become a superstar), his defense is apparently Prince Fielder bad.  He is lauded for his agility, picks at first, and size at first base…yet his UZR was enough to cost a full win.  Somehow, I haven’t seen that costly play.  This is the next all-around superstar.

Cy Young

5) James Shields, TB

16-12, ERA: 2.82, xFIP: 3.25, K/BB: 3.46, fWAR = 4.9, rWAR = 6.1

Shields had a terrible time with BABIP in 2010, but this year, the pendulum swung the other way, and Big Game James had all sorts of luck.  His BABIP was .258 this season!  That helped out the ERA quite a bit.  Better lucky than good, I include Shields to remind us all that pitchers are nothing more than pawns in the BABIP dragon’s sinister game.  Then again, the addition of a cutter may have helped.

4) Dan Haren, LAA

16-10, ERA: 3.17, xFIP: 3.29, K/BB: 5.82 fWAR = 6.4, rWAR = 4.0

One could argue that this Angel had the better season.  Fangraphs WAR certainly says so, but a .76 ERA difference on the same team leads me to the conclusion that Danny Haren was the #2.  Haren didn’t dominate hitters, but he did make them walk.  He made them walk a whole hell of a lot.  Cliff Lee type K/BB…just outstanding—and league leading.

3) Jered Weaver, LAA

18-8, ERA: 2.41, xFIP: 3.81, K/BB: 3.54, fWAR = 5.6, rWAR = 6.6

The glamour numbers are fantastic.  The BABIP was .250 even, which suggests regression next season.  However, it isn’t unusual for pitchers with Weaver’s pure stuff to generate lower BABIPs.  Weaver is an excellent pitcher, but he was not an elite K guy this season, or an elite control guy—not to mention all the peripherals indicate serious luck: low GB rate, low HR rate, high LOB %.  Obviously an amazing year, though. 

2) C.C. Sabathia, NYY

19-8, ERA: 3.00, xFIP: 3.02, K/BB: 3.77, fWAR = 7.1, rWAR = 6.9

The highest fWAR among AL pitchers, which tends to point out the flaw in fWAR, which is based entirely on peripheral stats.  Still, C.C. was phenomenal this year, and the peripherals tell me that he is basically due for another Cy Young.  The luck will go his way, the Yankees will generate the necessary offense, and it will happen.

1) Justin Verlander, DET

24-5, ERA: 2.40, xFIP: 3.12, K/B: 4.39, fWAR = 7.0, rWAR = 8.5

Wow.  I know wins are pure glamour, but…wow.  24 is special.  That ERA, aided by a .236 BABIP, is special.  Verlander dominated guys this year in a way that seemed new.  I think he may have benefited from the AL Central competition, but the results of the year are undeniable.  He may have been the most valuable player in the game.

Honorable Mentions: C.J. Wilson, Doug Fister, Josh Beckett

 

MVP

5) 2B Dustin Pedroia, BOS

.307/.387/.474, OPS: .861, wOBA: .377, wRC+: 134, fWAR = 8.0, rWAR = 6.8

Great play out of the 2B for yet another season.  Given that Ian Kinsler wasn’t far behind despite a terrible BABIP, he may overtake Pedroia next year.  And Cano is still playing.  But even in Boston’s fall-apart year, Dustin was the man this year.  Defense, hitting, total bases, he was great.

4) Curtis Granderson, NYY

.262/.364/.552, OPS: .916, wOBA: .394, wRC+: 146, fWAR = 7.0, rWAR = 5.2

Granderson was one of only two guys to top 40 HRs this season, and in the Yankees lineup, that makes you plenty productive.  119 RBI leads the league.  I’m not entirely sure why he is in CF and Gardner is in LF given the fact that Brett covers more ground, but Curtis has that going for his value.  It doesn’t hurt that he was part of a team in the playoffs, and his wins were exceptionally valuable.

3) CF Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS

.321/.376/.552, OPS: .928, wOBA: .402, wRC+: 150, fWAR = 9.4, rWAR = 7.2

Ellsbury EXPLODED this season.  Not only are his offensive numbers extraordinary (32 HRs???  DAMN!) for a man his size, but his defense was extraordinary, and he totaled bases like there was no tomorrow.  I figured he was an MVP shoe-in, but given the Boston fall-off, I can’t give the award to a Red Sox player.

2) Jose Bautista, TOR

.302/.447/.608, OPS: 1.055, wOBA: .441, wRC+: 181, fWAR = 8.3, rWAR = 8.5

Highest WAR in the AL, and I give him second place.  It is the accumulated value vs. team with value argument, and I keep letting the latter win.  Still, Joey Bats went proved the “one year wonder” talk to be wrong.  He led the league in HRs with 43, and his walk rate (20.2%) was absurd.  The next closest guy in the AL was at 15.7%, and he is next on the list.  If you are going to score runs, you have to get on base, and slug.  Joey did that the best this year.  His down-side was his defense, which kept him from being so elite I HAVE TO give him the award.

1) Winner: Miguel Cabrera, DET

.344/.448/.586, OPS: 1.034, wOBA: .436, wRC+: 177, fWAR = 7.3, rWAR = 7.1

You’ll notice the WAR is lower.  You’ll also notice the offensive numbers are better than anyone except Bautista, and that is a close race.  You’ll also note that the next closest 1B in WAR is Adrian Gonzalez—because 1B drains your WAR.  The actual production was the best season an elite player has totaled in his career.  While his defense was sub-par, like Bautista, the numbers are close enough to consider the playoff factor.  He deserves the award, and this is the season to give it to him.  The efforts of Verlander and Cabrera led this team.

Honorable Mention: SP Justin Verlander, 3B Evan Longoria, 2B Ian Kinsler, 1B Adrian Gonzalez, LF Alex Gordon

MLB AWARDS: NL PREDICTIONS

These are the awards as I see them going.  Of course, this is one fictional ballot, so…ugh.  When evaluating, I tended to go with everyone’s favorite evaluative measure: the gut.  But, I mostly looked at UZR for Gold Gloves, a combination of stats for pitchers, and mostly 2 things for MVP: (1) how much value did you give your team, and (2) what would your team have done without you?  That seems like pretty good criteria for the “most valuable” player.

NL AWARDS

Gold Glove

P – Hiroki Kuroda, LAD

C – Chris Ianetta, COL

1B – Joey Votto, CIN

2B – Brandon Phillips, CIN

SS – Troy Tulowitzki, COL

3B – Pablo Sandoval, SFG

LF – Gerardo Parra, ARI

CF – Chris Young, ARI

RF – Jason Heyward, ATL

Rookie of the Year

5) RHP Brandon Beachy, ATL

7-3, ERA: 3.68, xFIP: 3.16, K/BB: 3.67, fWAR = 2.8, rWAR = 2.0

Draft watchers have to look at the first 2 ROY guys and think “where did he come from?” Beachy just plain wasn't drafted.  Great K rate, good peripherals.  If he gets the walks down, Beachy could go from fringe #5 to potential ace.

4) RHP Vance Worley, PHI

11-3, ERA: 3.01, xFIP: 3.66, K/BB: 2.59, fWAR = 2.5, rWAR = 2.8

If there is one thing the Phillies needed, it was starting pitching—oh wait, the have 3 Cy Young contenders and Roy Oswalt.  Well, Blanton wasn’t too great, so why not throw a ROY candidate in the mix.  He pitched above his peripherals, but he progressively got better as the year went on.  Originally thought to have a #3 ceiling, he might be even more than that.

3) 2B Danny Espinosa, WSN

.236/.323/.414, OPS: .737, wOBA: .325, wRC+: 104, fWAR = 3.5, rWAR = 2.5

Solid defense, a great approach at the plate, and some definite power make Espinosa a great player—not in the future—right now.  I think an easy comp is Kelly Johnson, but he is showing advanced ability at a young age.  I doubt his batting average ever takes off, but with that walk rate and power, I don’t think it needs to.  Fun fact: led the league in HBP.

2) 1B Freddie Freeman, ATL

.282/.346/.448, OPS: .794, wOBA: .345, wRC+: 118, fWAR = 1.0, rWAR = 1.1

The defensive numbers and positional value drag down his WAR, but there is little doubt that Freeman is the real deal—not to mention that his defense isn’t that bad at all.  UZR has some work to do on first basemen.  Freeman was supposed to be good, but his power was surprising.  21 HRs is a great sign for the future.

1) Winner: RHP Craig Kimbrel, ATL

4-3, 46 SVs, ERA: 2.10, xFIP: 1.94, K/BB: 3.97, fWAR = 3.2, rWAR = 3.0

Closers tend to be overvalued.  Not this time.  These K numbers are off-the-charts insane.  If he decreased his walk rate, he will be the best in the game.  Today’s game is one of high K relievers, and considering age and stuff, Kimbrel is the best young reliever today.

Cy Young

5) LHP Cole Hamels, PHI

14-9, ERA: 2.79, xFIP: 3.02, K/BB: 4.41, fWAR = 4.9, rWAR = 5.4

Great year for the ace/#3 starter.  Was unlikely with fly balls and his HR ratio, and still was fantastic.  Cain didn’t have his K rate, Garza  didn’t have his control, and neither quite got his results.

4) Ian Kennedy, ARI

21-4, ERA: 2.88, xFIP: 3.50, K/BB: 3.60, fWAR = 5.0, rWAR = 5.5

It is the old school part of me that loves his actual results, and that is how I tend to feel about pitchers.  Sure, next season he may not be as good—and yes, his defensive helped him out much more than the average defense—but the award for best pitcher does well to include sometimes include a team defensive performance.  Now, if his xFIP was 4, that is different.  But it wasn’t all luck.  I know wins are a terrible measure, but 21-4?  Damn.  Even if the year was lucky, he deserves to be mentioned THIS YEAR.

3) Cliff Lee, PHI

17-8, ERA: 2.40, xFIP: 2.60, K/BB: 5.67, fWAR = 6.7, rWAR = 6.8

Phenomenal numbers, amazing season, and if you had him #1, I wouldn’t blame you.  One of the best in the game with a great year.  Every stat was there, and even in his older age, he was the K man on the best rotation evah. 

2) Clayton Kershaw, LAD

21-5, ERA: 2.28, xFIP: 2.84, K/BB: 4.59, fWAR = 6.8, rWAR = 6.9

If I were to go with Kershaw, the irony of selecting new blood is that Kershaw will only get better.  Still, the one thing I don’t like about him is his walk rate.  However, his WHIP is 0.98.  That would be the best among starters.  The higher Ks plus low WHIP, plus winning the other categories is pretty tough to decline, but Halladay is sick man.

1) Winner: Roy Halladay, PHI

19-6, ERA: 2.35, xFIP: 2.71, K/BB: 6.29, fWAR = 8.2, rWAR = 7.4

A part of me wants Kershaw to win.  Perhaps I am punishing Halladay for being too good.  Or maybe the kid who grew up without sabermetrics can’t get away from the higher win total, the ERA, and the strikeouts.  Either way, Halladay is consistently amazing every season, and I can see him taking this.  The WAR and K/BB pretty much proves it. 

Honorable Mentions: Matt Garza, Matt Cain, Zack Greinke, Chris Carpenter, Madison Bumgartner, Daniel Hudson, Tim Lincecum

 

MVP

5) 1B Joey Votto, CIN

.309/.416/.531, OPS = .947, wOBA = .403, wRC+ = 155, fWAR = 6.9, rWAR = 6.5

The reigning MVP gets a nod on the list with another outstanding year--in fact, as he earned his defensive stripes, his WAR went UP!  His WAR was the 3^rd highest among hitters in the NL, and if there is any reason to believe Cincinnati has a shot to contend next season, it is the situation of the 3 awesome first baseman of the NL Central.  Pujols = FA.  Fielder = FA.  Votto = Under control.  Also, peripheral stats look good for a team rebound.

4) 1B Prince Fielder, MIL

.299/.415/.566, OPS = .981, wOBA = .408, wRC+ = 162, fWAR = 5.5, rWAR = 5.2

Prince has some amazing offensive numbers, but he is kind of a chunker in the field.  His offensive contribution is undeniable, and he did it for one of the best NL teams.

3) RF Justin Upton, ARI

.289/.369/.529, OPS = .898, wOBA = .385, wRC+  = 140, fWAR = 6.4, rWAR = 4.1

Great defense, the heart of a playoff offense…truly the most valuable player to the D-backs, and I think he may have truly been worth more to his team than WAR indicates.  He is a budding, young superstar, and he will likely be among the top 5 in MVP voting many times.  Bball-ref has his defense as poor...and, like Fangraphs, I have to disagree.

2) CF Matt Kemp, LAD

.324/.399/.586, OPS = .986, wOBA = .419, wRC+ = 171, fWAR = 8.7, rWAR = 10.0

Highest WAR in the NL and the most productive player.  This comes down to positional value, and the “what would the team be without his performance?” In CF, he gets a WAR boost that, let’s say, a LF or 1B, would not get.  If he played plus CF…that might be one thing—but I can’t give him a bonus for defense that WAR automatically gives.  It is notable that BB-Ref loves his defense and UZR dislikes it.  As it stands, his offensive contribution is nearly the equal of #1 with just a tougher position.  If the Dodgers were even competitive, I would go with Kemp.  But with him, they are still a non-contender.  Still, I can hardly argue with it if he is given the award.  He had a terrific season and led the league in total bases.

1) Winner: LF Ryan Braun, MIL

.332/.397/.597, OPS = .994, wOBA = .433, wRC+ = 179, fWAR = 7.8, rWAR = 7.7

Braun is a sub-par defender at the easiest OF position--though BB-Ref likes him (surprise, surpise).  Then again, he rakes like some sort of monster sent from space to hit all baseballs.  His offensive output was the best in the NL, and without him, I don’t think the Brewers make the playoffs.  If he isn’t on the team, who plays LF?  Gomez?  Or Gomez in CF and T-Plush in LF?  I think a 6 WAR drop-off is a legitimate possibility.  Without Braun, the Brewers might make the playoffs, but I sincerely doubt it.

Honorable Mention: Any one of the big 3 for St. Louis.  Any one of Pujols, Berkman, and Holliday not swinging like they did, and that team is not the same.  It is tough to call any single one of them even the TEAM MVP.  A impressive balance.

A.L. tomorrow...