These are the awards as I see them going. Of course, this is one fictional ballot, so…ugh. When evaluating, I tended to go with everyone’s favorite evaluative measure: the gut. But, I mostly looked at UZR for Gold Gloves, a combination of stats for pitchers, and mostly 2 things for MVP: (1) how much value did you give your team, and (2) what would your team have done without you? That seems like pretty good criteria for the “most valuable” player.
NL AWARDS
Gold Glove
P – Hiroki Kuroda, LAD
C – Chris Ianetta, COL
1B – Joey Votto, CIN
2B – Brandon Phillips, CIN
SS – Troy Tulowitzki, COL
3B – Pablo Sandoval, SFG
LF – Gerardo Parra, ARI
CF – Chris Young, ARI
RF – Jason Heyward, ATL
Rookie of the Year
5) RHP Brandon Beachy, ATL
7-3, ERA: 3.68, xFIP: 3.16, K/BB: 3.67, fWAR = 2.8, rWAR = 2.0
Draft watchers have to look at the first 2 ROY guys and think “where did he come from?” Beachy just plain wasn't drafted. Great K rate, good peripherals. If he gets the walks down, Beachy could go from fringe #5 to potential ace.
4) RHP Vance Worley, PHI
11-3, ERA: 3.01, xFIP: 3.66, K/BB: 2.59, fWAR = 2.5, rWAR = 2.8
If there is one thing the Phillies needed, it was starting pitching—oh wait, the have 3 Cy Young contenders and Roy Oswalt. Well, Blanton wasn’t too great, so why not throw a ROY candidate in the mix. He pitched above his peripherals, but he progressively got better as the year went on. Originally thought to have a #3 ceiling, he might be even more than that.
3) 2B Danny Espinosa, WSN
.236/.323/.414, OPS: .737, wOBA: .325, wRC+: 104, fWAR = 3.5, rWAR = 2.5
Solid defense, a great approach at the plate, and some definite power make Espinosa a great player—not in the future—right now. I think an easy comp is Kelly Johnson, but he is showing advanced ability at a young age. I doubt his batting average ever takes off, but with that walk rate and power, I don’t think it needs to. Fun fact: led the league in HBP.
2) 1B Freddie Freeman, ATL
.282/.346/.448, OPS: .794, wOBA: .345, wRC+: 118, fWAR = 1.0, rWAR = 1.1
The defensive numbers and positional value drag down his WAR, but there is little doubt that Freeman is the real deal—not to mention that his defense isn’t that bad at all. UZR has some work to do on first basemen. Freeman was supposed to be good, but his power was surprising. 21 HRs is a great sign for the future.
1) Winner: RHP Craig Kimbrel, ATL
4-3, 46 SVs, ERA: 2.10, xFIP: 1.94, K/BB: 3.97, fWAR = 3.2, rWAR = 3.0
Closers tend to be overvalued. Not this time. These K numbers are off-the-charts insane. If he decreased his walk rate, he will be the best in the game. Today’s game is one of high K relievers, and considering age and stuff, Kimbrel is the best young reliever today.
Cy Young
5) LHP Cole Hamels, PHI
14-9, ERA: 2.79, xFIP: 3.02, K/BB: 4.41, fWAR = 4.9, rWAR = 5.4
Great year for the ace/#3 starter. Was unlikely with fly balls and his HR ratio, and still was fantastic. Cain didn’t have his K rate, Garza didn’t have his control, and neither quite got his results.
4) Ian Kennedy, ARI
21-4, ERA: 2.88, xFIP: 3.50, K/BB: 3.60, fWAR = 5.0, rWAR = 5.5
It is the old school part of me that loves his actual results, and that is how I tend to feel about pitchers. Sure, next season he may not be as good—and yes, his defensive helped him out much more than the average defense—but the award for best pitcher does well to include sometimes include a team defensive performance. Now, if his xFIP was 4, that is different. But it wasn’t all luck. I know wins are a terrible measure, but 21-4? Damn. Even if the year was lucky, he deserves to be mentioned THIS YEAR.
3) Cliff Lee, PHI
17-8, ERA: 2.40, xFIP: 2.60, K/BB: 5.67, fWAR = 6.7, rWAR = 6.8
Phenomenal numbers, amazing season, and if you had him #1, I wouldn’t blame you. One of the best in the game with a great year. Every stat was there, and even in his older age, he was the K man on the best rotation evah.
2) Clayton Kershaw, LAD
21-5, ERA: 2.28, xFIP: 2.84, K/BB: 4.59, fWAR = 6.8, rWAR = 6.9
If I were to go with Kershaw, the irony of selecting new blood is that Kershaw will only get better. Still, the one thing I don’t like about him is his walk rate. However, his WHIP is 0.98. That would be the best among starters. The higher Ks plus low WHIP, plus winning the other categories is pretty tough to decline, but Halladay is sick man.
1) Winner: Roy Halladay, PHI
19-6, ERA: 2.35, xFIP: 2.71, K/BB: 6.29, fWAR = 8.2, rWAR = 7.4
A part of me wants Kershaw to win. Perhaps I am punishing Halladay for being too good. Or maybe the kid who grew up without sabermetrics can’t get away from the higher win total, the ERA, and the strikeouts. Either way, Halladay is consistently amazing every season, and I can see him taking this. The WAR and K/BB pretty much proves it.
Honorable Mentions: Matt Garza, Matt Cain, Zack Greinke, Chris Carpenter, Madison Bumgartner, Daniel Hudson, Tim Lincecum
MVP
5) 1B Joey Votto, CIN
.309/.416/.531, OPS = .947, wOBA = .403, wRC+ = 155, fWAR = 6.9, rWAR = 6.5
The reigning MVP gets a nod on the list with another outstanding year--in fact, as he earned his defensive stripes, his WAR went UP! His WAR was the 3rd highest among hitters in the NL, and if there is any reason to believe Cincinnati has a shot to contend next season, it is the situation of the 3 awesome first baseman of the NL Central. Pujols = FA. Fielder = FA. Votto = Under control. Also, peripheral stats look good for a team rebound.
4) 1B Prince Fielder, MIL
.299/.415/.566, OPS = .981, wOBA = .408, wRC+ = 162, fWAR = 5.5, rWAR = 5.2
Prince has some amazing offensive numbers, but he is kind of a chunker in the field. His offensive contribution is undeniable, and he did it for one of the best NL teams.
3) RF Justin Upton, ARI
.289/.369/.529, OPS = .898, wOBA = .385, wRC+ = 140, fWAR = 6.4, rWAR = 4.1
Great defense, the heart of a playoff offense…truly the most valuable player to the D-backs, and I think he may have truly been worth more to his team than WAR indicates. He is a budding, young superstar, and he will likely be among the top 5 in MVP voting many times. Bball-ref has his defense as poor...and, like Fangraphs, I have to disagree.
2) CF Matt Kemp, LAD
.324/.399/.586, OPS = .986, wOBA = .419, wRC+ = 171, fWAR = 8.7, rWAR = 10.0
Highest WAR in the NL and the most productive player. This comes down to positional value, and the “what would the team be without his performance?” In CF, he gets a WAR boost that, let’s say, a LF or 1B, would not get. If he played plus CF…that might be one thing—but I can’t give him a bonus for defense that WAR automatically gives. It is notable that BB-Ref loves his defense and UZR dislikes it. As it stands, his offensive contribution is nearly the equal of #1 with just a tougher position. If the Dodgers were even competitive, I would go with Kemp. But with him, they are still a non-contender. Still, I can hardly argue with it if he is given the award. He had a terrific season and led the league in total bases.
1) Winner: LF Ryan Braun, MIL
.332/.397/.597, OPS = .994, wOBA = .433, wRC+ = 179, fWAR = 7.8, rWAR = 7.7
Braun is a sub-par defender at the easiest OF position--though BB-Ref likes him (surprise, surpise). Then again, he rakes like some sort of monster sent from space to hit all baseballs. His offensive output was the best in the NL, and without him, I don’t think the Brewers make the playoffs. If he isn’t on the team, who plays LF? Gomez? Or Gomez in CF and T-Plush in LF? I think a 6 WAR drop-off is a legitimate possibility. Without Braun, the Brewers might make the playoffs, but I sincerely doubt it.
Honorable Mention: Any one of the big 3 for St. Louis. Any one of Pujols, Berkman, and Holliday not swinging like they did, and that team is not the same. It is tough to call any single one of them even the TEAM MVP. A impressive balance.
A.L. tomorrow...
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